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Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Forecasting 2021: search for yield to be dominant narrative

In the AFR I write that after experiencing the mother of all “known unknowns” via this awful, one-in-100 year pandemic, you’d be brave to venture into the forecasting...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

MMT’s key claim is true but simplistic

Articles and presentations about Modern Monetary Thinking (MMT) are often annoyingly one sided. This isn’t too surprising given the policy recommendations by MMT’s...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Liquidity and Necessity

How do we see the outlook for 2021? Before I answer that question, I need to highlight a very important point: what follows is our current view. If something...
Romano Sala Tenna
Katana Asset Management
Macro

The chart of the year

In a development that could rain on the parade of bullishness that has enveloped global markets, the median correlation across nine types of global risk...
Anthony Doyle
Anthony Doyle
Firetrail Investments
Macro

Annus horribilis

In the AFR today I write that as difficult as 2020’s annus horrbilis has been—a year in which we’ve all lost-out, one way or another—the winners have been human...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Speculators are playing with fire; investors, don’t get burnt!

Earlier this month, a columnist at another Australian website encapsulated the exuberance that’s currently gripping stocks – and the incredulity that somebody mightn’t...
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

Aussie banks prove indestructible

In the AFR today I write that Australia’s ferocious banking regulator has tried its darndest to blow-up our deposit-takers in the latest iteration of its...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Rapid Fire

Bucking bulls, Bond and a boost for the ASX: Shane Oliver's 2021 watchlist

With 2021 just around the corner, vaccine distribution looking promising and a US election put to bed, the bulls of the market are bucking, with little concern of any...
Bella Kidman
Bella Kidman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Is there anything cheap left?

As we’ve highlighted in the two previous quarterly asset allocation valuation publications, (pretty much) everything is expensive. Abundant liquidity has pushed...
Chris Watling
Longview Economics
Macro

The critical question to ask in 2021

We believe the one thing investors cannot ignore in 2021 is whether the businesses they are invested in have pricing power. Many people are forecasting an increase in...
Charlie Aitken
Charlie Aitken
Aitken Investment Management
Macro

Commonwealth budget tracking better than the government’s forecast profile

Authored by Kieran Davies, Coolabah Capital Investments. In this new report, we review our real-time tracking of the Commonwealth budget. Treasurer Frydenberg is...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Three key risks to consider before a well-earned rest this silly season

To say it’s been a tumultuous year is to put it mildly. It’s been a year of bushfires and floods, of crushing self-isolation and illuminating self-reflection, of a...
Ally Selby
Livewire Markets
Macro

4 reasons for optimism after a year to forget

2020 wasn’t the year anyone expected. Every year has a big surprise of some sort – or what Dr Don Stammer has long called factor X. But they don’t usually have such a...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Is the Value rally sustainable?

2020 has been a year of ‘fastests’. It was the fastest market meltdown back in March and the fastest market recovery in the following months after that. In November...
Steve Johnson
Forager
Macro

Inflation or recovery in 2021: The chicken or the egg?

If we were to organise the Grand Financial Debate ahead of 2021, what would be the main topic of discussion? Plenty to choose from. Is inflation making a come-back,...
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
FNArena
Macro

AAA rating rock-solid

I write in the AFR this weekend that Standard & Poor’s has confirmed that Australia’s AAA rating is rock-solid despite downgrading both NSW and Victoria...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Investment megatrends in the post virus world | Webinar & Podcast

This week we look to next year, after one of the most tumultuous global and market environments in living memory through the lens of our popular mega trends...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Investors favour market timing in volatile times

Major market disruptions and radical uncertainty have characterised 2020. We were interested to see how this environment of extreme volatility and uncertainty has...
Adrian Stewart
PIMCO
Buy Hold Sell

Where these fundies still see value

With vaccines on the way, a settled election and the index returning to its February 2020 highs there has been a lot of good news for markets recently. However, making...
EGG
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Buy Hold Sell
Livewire Markets
Macro

2021 could be the year the narrative changes

Covid-19 dominated the headlines in 2020, but it should also be remembered for the Reserve Bank of Australia embracing an assortment of avant-garde actions. In many...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

How to position your portfolio for a post-COVID boom

The good news on COVID-19 vaccines strengthens the case for a global equities boom in 2021. But where will the biggest gains be found? In beaten-down cyclicals,...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

Hybrid risks just fell...

While I doubt whether any investors noticed, ASX bank hybrid risks likely just fell in a long overdue way. In particular, the probability of a bank hybrid being...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

10 outrageous predictions for 2021

Saxo Bank has today released its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2021. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to...
Eleanor Creagh
Eleanor Creagh
Saxo Capital Markets
Macro

Three ways to take on the falling US dollar

A downtrend in the US currency is underway, having started after the COVID-19 market sell-off and triggered by the huge amount of quantitative easing (QE) in the US....
Arian Neiron
VanEck
Macro

The global recovery will be its darkest before dawn

As 2020 nears an end, investors face a challenging combination of crosscurrents. On the positive side, the US election has passed with a market-friendly outcome and...
Ronald Temple
Lazard Asset Management
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