On Tuesday the ABS released December quarter property price data revealing that established house prices across the nation's capitals fell by 5.5% throughout 2018, faster than any twelve month period - including during the GFC. Our wire in December (‘How far is housing from fair value?’) analysed a few different valuation... Show More
Let's take a step back from the monthly housing data and ask ourselves: What's happening in the market and are we seeing a bottom in prices - or are there further falls to come? Show More
We asked our portfolio managers to share their views on potential surprises for 2019 which on balance of probabilities are unlikely to happen but shouldn’t be written off entirely. Here are ten potential surprises for 2019. Show More
Can we summarise the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Annual Report in 60 seconds? Sure, why not? The number of residential approvals to foreign buyers has been crippled over the past two years, from about 40,000 to 10,000. Show More
In early 2018 I wrote on Livewire that the year ahead would be a mixed bag for housing, as tightness in markets like Hobart contrasted the negative outlook for Sydney, which appeared to be at a market-top. As the year played out, a number of the concerns raised came to... Show More
The whole Livewire team is laser-focused on constantly improving your user experience, with relevant, readable content at the heart of that experience. To ensure the content keeps hitting the mark, we monitor a suite of data points. One we put a lot of weight on is the humble ‘like’ button... Show More
Australian bond yields declined rapidly over the December quarter, anticipating a major slowdown in the Australian and global economy. Real estate has a correlation to bonds, a function of the leases it has in place with its tenants and generally performs well in weak equity markets. Show More
With the housing market continuing to make news, we examine nationwide house prices relative to changes in income, lending rates and a measure called ‘hypothetical borrowing power’, to assess how they compare to 'fair value'. Show More
Sydney property prices are now off more than 10% according to Corelogic data. While painful for property owners and investors, the effects go far wider than that. Speaking at a recent event held by IRESS and Livewire, Ben Griffiths from Eley Griffiths Group looked at the wider impact. The downturn has... Show More
What would you nominate as the single biggest risk to the local stock market right now? In an interview at a recent event held by IRESS and Livewire, we asked Brad Matthews, who consults to Advisors and Managers on asset allocation, for his view. He told us: “In relative terms,... Show More
As a provider of asset allocation advice to fund managers and advisors, Brad Matthews provides an expert view of the big picture for each asset class. Weeks before 'Red October', Brad gave Livewire readers an explicit early warning in his wire offering ‘Three reasons to lighten your equity exposure'. Show More
A year ago, the property boom was showing signs of fading and we expected property prices to fall in Sydney and Melbourne by around 5-10%. Home prices were overvalued, affordability was very poor and tightening bank lending standards in response to pressure from the bank regulator APRA was expected to... Show More
East Coast residential property continues to soften as credit tightens, but in this interview with Charlie Jamieson, CIO at Jamieson Coote Bonds, he warns that property investors might make matters worse by becoming forced sellers in a falling market. Charlie outlines the mechanics of margin calls and forced selling, and told... Show More
The problem with the entire residential narrative is that it is based on short-term perspectives. Taking a long-term view, house price growth over the last six years is still exceptionally strong. Show More
Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing. Other cities will perform better having not seen the boom of the last few years. Property investors... Show More
If house prices are falling as rapidly as some headlines impute, can we expect this to impact AREIT investors? Let’s begin by looking at the facts, rather than the headlines. Housing demand and supply ebbs and flows. Because of the lower barriers to entry there’s often volatility in residential housing. Show More
