Let’s start by defining what a recession actually is. Google’s dictionary defines it as ‘a period of temporary economic decline during which trading and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters’. In short, we’re looking for some sustained contraction in GDP. So... Show More
In my last Livewire post, I commented that The Vega Fund would be looking closely at economic data over the coming months to determine whether it should remain long (and weather out what I believe is a temporary correction) or whether going short would be a viable option. Show More
By now most of the Livewire readers will be aware of the battle between Blue Sky (BLA) and the US short seller, Glaucus. I thought it may be worth penning a wire as I sit at the junction of the two: I know either personally or indirectly several the team... Show More
We initiated a short position in Telstra in February 2017, premised on rising mobile & broadband competition, which was likely to impact on Telstra’s growth outlook. Rising 10-yr bond rates make it a double-whammy for Telstra, which we also view as a bond-proxy. Show More
If the product is good, it must be a good company, right? The paradox of investing is that great investments often have little in common with great companies. This week we examine the bull case for Tesla, as espoused by one stockbroker and find it, shall we say, somewhat lacking.... Show More
As a long/short manager, we hedge sharemarket risk for our investors by short-selling the shares of weak businesses when they are overvalued. By holding long and short portfolios of roughly equal size and composition, our funds have little or no net exposure to the share market. Our directional fund provides... Show More
A nasty March is what Saxo's Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen is expecting. He points to the increasing strength of the US dollar which, he says, will kill commodity stabilisation as well as the ability of emerging markets to revitalise the global economy. He also points to the Bank of Japan... Show More
Shorting. The bane of all good long term investors and adds no value to society. That is what a lot of long-only Fund Managers and media commentators would have investors believe. But with the release of "The Big Short" at the movies, investors are getting another perspective on the work... Show More
The key ingredients of the recent bounce in markets were created from continuing Central Bank support and short covering activities by hedge funds. Show More
Saxo Capital Markets’ traders of the Australian desk have just opened their third short position on a local share. Following their short trades on Commonwealth Bank and Newcrest’s shares, Saxo traders have now suggested shorting Westpac at market value and with a first target at $A27.48. According to the traders... Show More
Some very strange things have occurred at Hanergy Thin Film – the company owned by China’s (former) richest man, Li Hejun. 1) The stock crashed by more than 50% in less than one second. “Before its crash and indefinite trading suspension, Hanergy’s market value was higher than all other listed... Show More
“Hedge fund manager Ben McGarry thinks the Australian sharemarket is headed for a "day of reckoning", which bodes well for his Totus Capital Alpha Fund strategy, which has a track record of performing best when the market is down. Taking short positions on education provider Vocation Group and iron ore... Show More
