Get first access to the #1 fundie stock picks for 2023

Livewire's Outlook Series is back for its seventh year. And what a tumultuous year it's been. Inflation and rate hikes have turned stocks on their head. But it now appears like we're reaching the end of the rate hike cycle, for now. The question on all investors' minds is 'where to from here?' 

So it's only fitting that we call in the kind of expertise that's worthy of the moment. That expertise comes in the form of 15 of Australia's best fund managers, split across Sydney and Melbourne. I'm sure you'll find it's a good mix of returning characters and first rodeos. 

My colleague Ally Selby will ask them about the year that was, what they expect from the year ahead, and most importantly - what their #1 stock picks are in 2023. 

While the benefits of a market timing strategy are up for debate, what isn't up for debate is the advantages that can be had by getting insights first and early. So, like last year, we're giving first dibs on the fundie picks to everyone who complete our reader survey. Here at Livewire, we strive to deliver insights that are deep and just as importantly - relevant to you. And the reader survey is one of the main tools for that. 

Before I roll out the list of all-star fundies, let's wind back the clock and explore some of the best calls from previous years. 

2016

Matthew Kidman put his faith in Pro Medicus (ASX: PME).

As he put it, then: “A little radiology company taking the world by storm, winning contracts, I think it can do very well in 2016,” 

It's not so little anymore.

When Kidman tipped them when it was $3.35. It's now trading at $57.98, having only lost 8% this year. And as it stands, the chart points up. 

2017

Chris Stott romped it home with mining technology company Imdex (ASX: IMD).

“They've de-levered the balance sheet and the capital structure has been cleaned up,” Stott said at the time.

It returned a whopping 82.61% back in 2017. 2022 certainly hasn't been its year, however, with a return of -23%.  

Ben Clark has consistently picked winners in the years he’s been involved in the Outlook Series. And 2017 was no exception. He went with small-cap software company Altium (ASX: ALU).

“Great management, structural growth in their industry, and they're growing faster and taking market share.”

2018

2018 was a truly awful year for markets, worse even than this year (unless something extraordinary happens between now and December 31st). The All Ordinaries and MSCI World Index returned -7.42% and -8.2% respectively.

Someone forgot to tell Richard 'Coppo' Coppleson, though, who picked soon-to-be market darling Afterpay (ASX: APT). It ended up doubling in 2018 with a total return of 107.71%.

That was all the good news there was in 2018, unfortunately. 

Every other stock pick finished the year in negative territory, and by quite a margin. With the exception of Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL) (-5.08%) and Emeco Holdings (ASX: EHL) (-18.80%), all other stock picks finished the year around 40% in the red.

2019

2019 was the standout year. The picks collectively outperformed the Australian market by over 40%, thanks in large part to Alacer Gold (ASX: AQG) (202.37% return) and Xero (ASX: XRO) (90.39%). Well done to Dave Allingham from Eley Griffiths Group and Ben Clark from TMS Capital.

Only one stock out of five finished in the red – Murray River Group (ASX: MRG) (-36.71%).

2020

Ben Clark’s pick Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) delivered a lot more than just packages in 2020. Its shareholders received a total return of 60% courtesy of the lockdown sugar hit the lockdown provided e-commerce.

Fast forward to 2022 and things have certainty changed. The stock is down almost 50% year to date. 

The other big gainers in 2020 also enjoyed direct exposure to the e-commerce boom.

Andrew Mitchell tipped City Chic Collective (ASX: CCX), a multi-channel retailer, and it returned 61.26%. 

2021

Like 2022, Lithium plays ruled the roost in 2021. Two lithium miners, Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) and Galaxy Resources (ASX: GXY) (which merged part way through the year with Orocobre) returned 210.34% and 136.77% respectively. 

And Julia Weng picked both of them.

Interestingly, Pilbara was the best performing stock in the ASX 200 for 2021.

Overall, the 2021 picks delivered an average total return of 45.14%, when viewed as an equal-weighted portfolio. This is quite a feat when you consider that the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries and the MSCI World Index have returned roughly 11.47% and 16.65% respectively year to date.

Meantime, on the global front, Chris Demasi showed exceptional form with his two nominations for 2021. He went with two big investment powerhouses. Blackstone Group (NASDAQ: BX), which returned 120.66% for the year, and Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG) with an impressive 87.07%.

2022

2022 has been a tough year. For a while it looked like things were going to be worse than 2018, but that outcome was thankfully averted. 

Hamish Carlisle from Merlon Capital has top bragging rights with his pick QBE Insurance (ASX: QBE). It blew away the competition with a return of 15.96%.

QBE has been a direct benefactor of rate hikes, which the insurance industry is directly exposed to via the 'premium rate' - the calculation on how much a unit of insurance covers. If inflation increases, so too does that unit of cover. 

"QBE has seen premium rates increase by around 8% over the year, which is above inflation in most classes of business, so underlying margins are expanding," he said earlier this month. 

"Insurance accounting and some reserve top-ups, coinciding with the CEO transition and volatile claims, have masked the extent of improvement as far as reported earnings are concerned, but higher headline margins should emerge over time." 

Equities

Nearly all of the #1 stock picks are in the red for 2022... Here's why that could now change

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Sydney guests

• Oscar Oberg, Wilson Asset Management
• Ben Clark, TMS Capital
• Catherine Allfrey, WaveStone Capital
• Jun Bei Liu, Tribeca Investment Partners
• Romano Sala Tenna, Katana Asset Management
• Anthony Aboud, Perpetual Asset Management
• Andrew Clifford, Platinum Asset Management
• Matthew Kidman, Centennial Asset Management
• Mary Manning, Alphinity Investment Management

Melbourne guests

• Nick Griffin, Munro Partners
• Nick Sladen, LSN Capital Partners
• Marcus Padley, MarcusToday
• Robert Gregory, Glenmore Asset Management
• Michael Goldberg, Collins St Asset Management
• Dion Hershan, Yarra Capital Management

First access to the #1 stock tips for 2023

To get first access to #1 stock picks for 2023, please complete the 2023 Reader Predictions and Top Picks Survey here.

*You must complete the survey before midnight on 31/12/2022 to be eligible for early release access.