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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Falling real wages and the risk of much higher US interest rates

US wages growth is still rapidly accelerating with the employment cost index up about 4½% over the past year, which is the fastest growth since 2000 and 1991 before...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

NSW budget tracking up to $7.5bn - $10bn better than expected this financial year

The NSW budget remained close to balance in March and is likely to undershoot the full-year government forecast for 2021-22 (FY2022) by between $7.5 billion and $10...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Does the election matter?

With the country staring down the barrel of another federal election, this month’s Market Insight is dedicated to some fact-checking around the ongoing claims on...
Alex Cathcart
Drummond Capital Partners
Macro

Over to you, Martin Place: Inflation cracks 5% in Australia

It's finally happened. For the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, we have a year-on-year inflation print in Australia of over five percent.  Yes - you...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

China preparing for war with Australia

The spectre of Chinese nuclear submarines, destroyers, fighters, and bombers based in the Solomon Islands, merely 1,752 kilometres from Australia’s mainland – and...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Inflation: an investor’s friend and foe

The data is showing it, central bankers are focusing on it and the community are feeling it at the fuel pump, the food aisle and through friendly conversations at...
Sebastian Evans
NAOS
Macro

The quantitative tease stakes: Will the RBA run with the Fed favourite?

Ever thought a macro article would be compared to a horse race? Well, I have and in this case, it's central banks who are mingling behind the starting stalls for the...
John Abernethy
Clime Asset Management
Macro

Have we reached peak inflation?

Global Markets Higher bond yields and oil prices caused global equities to remain on the defensive last week, with further hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve,...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

An "extraordinary" investor reaction that's creating rare opportunities

The market's multiple headwinds have forced several high-quality global businesses to valuations not seen since the COVID sell-off or the GFC.
Andrew Clifford
Andrew Clifford
Platinum Asset Management
Macro

Is predicting inflation's peak a fruitless exercise?

Transitory was the macro word of 2021 as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks attempted to calm markets about the pace of inflation. Investors fought...
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Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

US recession risk in late 2023 poses a threat to equities and credit

In the AFR I write that in December and early January this column repeatedly warned investors to prepare their portfolios for an interest rate shock that would force...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

A perfect recipe for economic disaster

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in March appeared before the Senate Banking Committee and vowed the US central bank would quell inflation running at four-decade...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan Investment Partners
Macro

Mid-Cycle correction or a new bear market?

The balance sheet recession that followed the global financial crisis was a powerful deflationary force. Watermark Funds Management's Justin Braitling explains why...
Justin Braitling
Watermark Funds Management
Macro

Is this a crystal ball for the next recession?

Ask an investor what they would most like to know in advance and the timing of the next recession might be high up their list. The correlation between the ups and...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

Will the Ukraine risk reversal trade last?

Australian equities were a near-total anomaly in global markets last month, thanks to ongoing demand for our commodities. Global equities sank in the three months to...
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Bassanese Bites: When doves talk

Global Markets It was all about the Fed again last week, as further hawkish commentary pushed U.S. bond yields higher and U.S. stocks lower. In what seemed a shock to...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

US recession risk to rise in 2023/2024

We believe that one of the biggest issues for financial markets in the period ahead is the risk of a recession in the world's largest economy bringing down equity...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Build a big electric fence to secure the nation

In preparing for the very real prospect of a fully-fledged Indo-Pacific War between China and the West, Australia faces an enormous paradox, writes Christopher Joye...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Commodity shock - Australia's outperformance

In early March, a decision to adjust equity portfolio weightings to various regions could be viewed as one based on relative exposures to higher energy prices, says...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Chart of the Week - Global Policy Pivot

Monetary Policy from Tailwind to Headwind: Last year I counted 123 rate hikes across 41 central banks… meanwhile already so far this year I’ve counted 67 interest...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

Bassanese Bites: The Fed should hike rates by a full percentage point next month

Global MarketsGlobal equities consolidated last week after solid gains over the previous two weeks, with the most notable market movement being a sharp drop in oil...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

Numbers over narrative

There’s an old joke about one person asking another how to get somewhere. The answer: “First off, I wouldn’t start from here.” That punchline works for an investor...
Chad Padowitz
Talaria Asset Management
Macro

5 great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present

At its core, the basic principles of successful investing are simple & timeless, explains Shane Oliver from AMP Capital. One way to demonstrate that is in charts or...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Sky-high vacancies suggest the jobless rate will decline further to 3-point-something per cent ...

Recent data on both job vacancies and worker mobility show that Australia's labour market is continuing to tighten, pointing to ongoing reductions in the...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Much more defence spending required to properly protect Australia

In the AFR I write that unable to control Australia after decades of unprecedented espionage and propaganda, and having had scant success forcing us to bend the knee...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
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