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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Will a global housing ‘bubble’ finally force central bankers’ hands?

House prices have been one of the unexpected beneficiaries of the pandemic. Lockdowns and the working-from-home revolution have spurred demand for more space, a larger...
Mark Ambrose
Mark Ambrose
Global Value Fund
Macro

Analysis: Why the RBA is likely to stick to its taper decision in September

The hurdle for the Reserve Bank of Australia to backtrack on the bond-buying taper decision remains high and keeping it elevated would be the rapidly accelerating pace...
Sophia Rodrigues
Sophia Rodrigues
Central Bank Intel
Macro

Macro market indicators

One of our preferred market valuation indicators is the CAPE model derived from macroeconomic fundamentals. The basic idea is that lower levels of interest rates...
QAN
SCG
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David Berthon-Jones
Aequitas Investment Partners
Macro

Is the RBA taper vs non-taper decision a non-event for September?

The RBA "taper vs non-taper" decision for its bond purchase, or quantitative easing (QE), program will be resolved in September with many banks (eg, UBS, DB, CBA,...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Substantial NSW govt. COVID financial support is tracking well below the weekly budgeted cost

With last year showing the importance of government support in limiting the economic fall-out from the pandemic and contributing to economic recovery, the NSW...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Expert Insights

Could a policy error spell trouble for markets?

The biggest question on most investors’ minds in the first half of 2021 has been ‘will inflation be transitory or lasting?’ While the issue is far from settled, the...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Inflation update: Still transient

We covered inflation in a lot of detail in our four-part series earlier this year. So far, the inflation cycle is playing out largely as foreshadowed. In particular,...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

The looming large excess of housing: What to do about it, and when

In an apparent suspension of collective logic, it appears few people have asked what happens when you provide massive incentives to bring forward an unprecedented...
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

High growth stocks at a fraction of the cost

It’s been 35 years since Capital Group first ventured into emerging market investing. Over this time, many changes have unfolded. The world has shrunk in the face of...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Yield and wages

There is a lot of noise in the financial press (meme stocks, crypto, central bank policy, etc.) and so it’s hard to really know what to focus on. In times like...
Chad Padowitz
Talaria Asset Management
Macro

Banks gouging taxpayers by arbitraging global liquidity rules...

Australia's banks are allowed to arbitrage global regulatory rules on best-practice liquidity requirements to maximise their returns on equity. This comes at a direct...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

In China and the US, economic recovery takes a disappointing turn

The potential for a slowdown in the world’s two largest economies is feeding concerns that global growth may have peaked Both countries are also facing another wave...
Kerry Craig
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Macro

Believe in the expansion

The Delta variant has become the predominant strain of COVID-19 in much of the world. In response, we're seeing a return to lockdowns and other socially...
Nathan Lim
Lonsec Holdings
Macro

RBA taper, non-taper options

I don't want to get back into the speculation game of what the RBA does or does not do in September. I've covered this territory before --- with the surprising move...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Central bank policy hinges on COVID-19 and lockdown

A singular COVID-19 case emerged in New Zealand the day before the RBNZ monetary policy meeting in August. Without any hesitation Auckland went straight into a 7-day...
Kate Samranvedhya
Kate Samranvedhya
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

The Delta Variant - is it that much different?

Over the last few months, we have seen the focus of the world’s media shift from the original COVID-19 strain to its younger sibling – the delta variant. The remainder...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Reporting Season

Inflation: Are you sceptical?

Anyone feeling sceptical about inflation would be wise to tune in to the final week of the August reporting season. If the first three weeks is any guide, inflation...
Dion Hershan
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

A pain in the bottleneck for supply chains

There are tentative signs that substantial supply chain bottlenecks in the US are starting to ease. But delivery times remain elevated, and we see inflationary...
Anthony Doyle
Anthony Doyle
Firetrail Investments
Macro

Unravelling the Aussie bank liquidity mystery

A scarcity of Australian government debt meant that the RBA and APRA had to be creative when implementing the post-GFC global banking reforms, known as Basel 3. The...
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Matthew Johnson
Matthew Johnson
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Economists again calling on RBA to adjust QE taper in light of recession

Interesting thoughts here from UBS on the RBA's QE program (see below), which reflects the emerging consensus, although I would personally like to secure some more...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Four signals from the Fed you don't want to miss

COVID-19 has changed the world and the repercussions will be felt in the bond market for several years. But the message from markets is murky, at best. We're at the...
Mia Kwok
Mia Kwok
Livewire Markets
Macro

Six reasons why shares are at or near record levels. But is it sustainable?

Despite lots of worries – around the resurgence of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant, peak growth, peak monetary and fiscal stimulus and high inflation – global...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Closed borders have highlighted Australia’s population Ponzi scheme

Philip Lowe’s recent comments on the impacts of migration were basic economic analysis but hit a raw nerve for those invested in Australia’s population Ponzi scheme....
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Heads bankers and fund managers win, tails taxpayers lose

In the Australian Financial Review I write, what do you get when politicians hire bankers to run their treasury and fund managers to lead their debt issuance agency?...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Bond markets tempt FAIT amid prospects for a steeper US yield curve

Since the hawkish Fed meeting in June, investors have talked of a ‘policy mistake’ that could undermine the central bank’s Flexible Average Inflation Targeting...
Anthony Doyle
Anthony Doyle
Firetrail Investments
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