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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

US inflation the key for next market rally

In the AFR I write that in an age of record household debt, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy transmission mechanism is a beast to behold. When the RBA...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Is the 25 year bull run for house prices over?

House prices always incite a lot of interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and ever-worsening affordability as prices boomed. But the...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Why stocks could bottom in September

This week, billionaire investor Bill Ackman sent out a tweet that got quite a lot of attention. I’m reproducing part of it here because Bill is wrong, and I want to...
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

With markets falling, is it safe to invest again?

In the famed 1970s thriller, Marathon Man, Nazi dentist Dr Christian Szell – who is looking for a stash of stolen diamonds – repeatedly asks the character played by...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

Aussie house prices start falling: Sydney down 1.3%, Melbourne off 0.7% - price falls to accelerate as RBA hikes

Aussie home values have started melting in concert with both the RBA and banks lifting both variable and fixed-rate borrowing costs, as we expected. According to the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Is the dollar done?

Last month the Russian government missed a payment on a Eurobond because financial sanctions meant that it was unable to service its debt. Russia managed to evade a...
Schroders Australia
Schroders
Macro

Did the pandemic alter everything for investors?

Everyone knows that the four most dangerous words in investment are ‘it’s different this time’. Sometimes, it is. More often, things end up much the same. The...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

3 key policy implications as the Coalition loses government

Australia’s federal election was held on Saturday 21 May 2022. The Liberal-National Coalition (LNP) government, led by Scott Morrison, was defeated, with the...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The last time the Fed lifted its cash rate to 2.5% in 2018, Bitcoin fell 83% to US$3,416

In the AFR I write that according to banks, Aussies shifted $20 billion out of risk-free deposits into cryptocurrencies last year, which have since more than halved in...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US equity crash points to heightened risk of 2023 recession

The stock market is signalling a heightened risk of a US recession in mid 2023 assuming no recovery in equity prices over the rest of this year. This is earlier than...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why Australia's latest jobs report may not gift a big rate hike in June

Roll up, roll up, we have yet another labour force surprise. But it's not the surprise we are used to. The good news? For the first time since 1974, unemployment is...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Quantitative Tightening

Some "inside-baseball" monetary policy machinations were revealed by the RBA yesterday, which banks and other expert RBA watchers summarise as the central bank...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

WA has downgraded its debt issuance in FY23 by a large margin and is actively repaying debt

WA has downgraded its debt issuance in 2022-23 (ie, FY23) by a large $1.3bn (or 20%) from its September 2021 budget estimate of $6.4bn and by $0.6bn from its...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The same economists that gave us inflation are going to save us all... with Stagflation.

When Frederick Hayek accepted his Nobel Prize for Economics back in 1974 he noted that at the time, “Economists were being called upon to say how to extricate the free...
Mark Tinker
Toscafund HK Limited and Market Thinking Limited
Macro

Update on Aussie bank liquidity requirements

Following the four major banks reporting their half-year and quarterly results as at the March 2022 balance date, we have updated our estimates of the amount of...
Jason Lindeman
Jason Lindeman
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Great Crypto-Currency Ponzi Scheme Crashes as Bitcoin loses US$800 billion...

As a result of sharply higher inflation and interest rates, the great unregulated crypto-currency "ponzi scheme" has finally started to unravel, as we warned it...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

It's CPI time: How badly will we catch America's inflation "cold"?

When America sneezes, the world catches a cold - or maybe even, this time, a plague. The US hands down its April inflation numbers tonight and the whole world will...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Prepare for steeper and more prolonged drawdowns

This week, on Tuesday 3 May, the Reserve Bank of Australia increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points, to 0.35 per cent, and signalled that there were more...
Tony Edwards
Tony Edwards
Atrium
Macro

The Big Short...

In the AFR I write today about The Big Short (brief except only enclosed). Specifically, since late last year, we’ve had several contrarian views. First, US markets...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

"Hi, stagflation": How the professionals trade Federal Reserve rate hikes

The inspiration for the title of this wire is a Forbes article published earlier this week by Brian Domitrovic of The Laffer Center in Texas. In it, Brian declared...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Wiping $1.5 trillion off house prices will force RBA to pause after 100-150 basis points of rate hikes

The RBA has a long history of getting the Aussie housing market's reactions to its cash rate changes horribly wrong, which is surprising given how easy the housing...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

If the Bond market is right, mortgage costs are about to double

The RBA needs to tread warily, says Andrew McAuley of Credit Suisse. Read through for his analysis of where mortgage rates could sit if the RBA goes too hard too early.
Andrew McAuley
Credit Suisse
Macro

Game, set and match: The RBA delivers its first election rate hike since 2007

For the first time since November 2010, the cash rate target has been lifted in Australia and for the first time since the reign of Glenn Stevens, the monetary...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

A difficult balancing act as the RBA starts raising rates

With the RBA about to start raising rates for the first time since 2010, it will be trying to manage a challenging economic mix of very low unemployment and high...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The rent is too darn high!

For many low and medium income Australians, the biggest issue in the upcoming Federal election is the cost of living. The quarterly CPI reading of 5.1%...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
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