If you were to analyse every major debt crisis in the world over the last 100 years, what would you learn? What patterns would emerge? Well Ray Dalio, the founder of the best performing hedge fund in the world has done just that. Show More
Concerned that the nine-year bull run has overstayed its welcome, many strategists have highlighted the narrow leadership of the US stock market as it has bucked weakening trends elsewhere in the world. Through June, the so-called FAANG stocks had accounted for 75% of the S&P 500’s 2.64% total return, in... Show More
In “The Second Machine Age”, Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee from MIT, chronologise how quickly technology is changing the world, and posit what the world might look like in the future. "Most fear that technology will replace most jobs. But the analogue and prediction I found most interesting was that... Show More
In my AFR column I explain why the housing correction appears to be very benign (until the RBA raises rates); why we took profits on our AAA rated asset-backed book; why the new A- rated issue from Singaporean bank DBS looked very cheap (and has subsequently performed strongly); and why... Show More
In our most recent webinar, Steve Johnson, Gareth Brown and Alex Shevelev discuss avoiding speculative madness, the importance of staying invested and at the same time, holding cash when necessary. You can listen to the full webinar at the bottom of this article or fast forward to the relevant area... Show More
In my AFR column I explain why the RBA, not housing supply as governor Philip Lowe conveniently argues, was responsible for blowing the great Aussie housing bubble and what assets currently look cheap in a world where most remain dear (click on that link to read for free or AFR... Show More
The sky is not falling was the message in September 2017. Our message was that the overall market did not show excessive valuations, which generally is a precursor to stock market corrections. However, our market outlook dimmed due to recent ‘risk-on’ rally, where most of the year’s return was delivered... Show More
As we roll into another new year, in the AFR I ask: "Is the fixed-rate government bond market – to be distinguished from floating-rate securities – in the mother-of-all bubbles? Very likely. Has it burst? Maybe, although the evidence is not persuasive. As it normalises, will it cause mayhem in... Show More
“Bitcoin has become one of the world’s hottest investments, a bubble inflated by social media, loose capital in search of the newest new thing”. You could be forgiven for thinking that this was written last week. In fact, it appeared in The Economist in April 2013. Bitcoin started that year... Show More
With a performance that is on track to 20-bag this year, there is little doubt it’s going to be a very Merry Christmas for Bitcoin enthusiasts, many of whom have made truly astonishing gains in 2017. Show More
Type “Bitcoin is a Bubble” into Google and you’ll get 31,800,000 results, a clear indication of how many times people have, incorrectly so far, called a top in the price of the worlds most famous cryptocurrency. Show More
When the next bubble and crash comes, would you rather be out six months early, or six months late? Chad Slater, Joint CIO at Morphic Asset Management, says some of the best returns come in the final throws of a bubble. Show More
Billionaire value investor and hedge fund manager, David Einhorn, said in an investor letter this week: “The market remains very challenging for value investing strategies, as growth stocks have continued to outperform value stocks. The persistence of this dynamic leads to questions regarding whether value investing is a viable strategy." Show More
It has been about 10 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) began to unfold. Very few were prepared for the financial damage that ensued. And it has permanently impacted the psyche of many market pundits. Since then, there has been no shortage of bear market predictions and lately there... Show More
The old saying that history doesn’t repeat but often rhymes sums up the fervour surrounding cryptocurrencies and blockchain. The media loves to write about something new and sexy and the financial media loves to write about those things as well, especially when they involve volatile asset prices. As cryptocurrencies and... Show More
In the AFR I argue that super funds need to radically overhaul their approach to asset-allocation by offering different options for renters and home owners, which have fundamentally different portfolio preferences given the way they are investing their wealth outside of super. The bottom line is that about half of... Show More
Do investors favour the next big thing, rather than focusing on long term success? Show More
The last few weeks in Australia have been dominated by talk of a housing bubble, and potential government measures to improve affordability, including the use of superannuation. Show More
Anyone who invests in bank deposits, bank bonds, and/or bank equities should read my AFR column today, which is partially excerpted for your benefit below (Apologies for the brevity, I am currently on a study tour overseas.) Free here: Show More
In The AFR I argue that the big banks are absolutely justified in hiking home loan rates after APRA's recent decisions, and are definitely doing the RBA's dirty work for it on the liability side of the household balance-sheet by helping cauterise financial stability risks. The mere fact that the... Show More