rates

Risk measure at GFC Levels - Should Investors be Worried?

Tamar Hamlyn

The Bank Bill – Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) spread is a keenly watched risk measure in fixed income markets that has experienced a significant widening in recent months, both in Australia and in overseas markets (where LIBOR is the equivalent rate to the Aussie bank bill rate). Show More

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The real danger lurking in the shadows

Jason Teh

While many investors fret about bonds or bond-like proxies from rising interest rates, the real danger lurking in the shadows is the prospect of rising risk premiums. Interest rates globally have already normalised, or maybe there is a little more to go. However, bond-like stocks already have wide risk premiums.... Show More

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Was January 26 the cycle peak?

Vimal Gor

There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a refresh... Show More

inflation volatility rates

Run for the hills... interest rates are exploding!

Jason Teh

...Or that is what some equity pundits masquerading as bond experts want you to believe. They predict that a ‘bondcano’ of rising interest rates will lead to collapsing prices for bonds and bond-like proxies. Show More

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Australia: Good... but not great

Alex Joiner

In Australia, the outlook remains mixed, labour market and confidence metrics have remained solid early in the year and this is expected to continue. Yet other activity indicators continue to suggest a more modest pick up in growth may be expected with limited price pressures. Show More

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More trouble on the way?

Tamar Hamlyn

This time last year we wrote on Livewire that inflation and volatility charts were the ones we were watching most closely. Following the recent surge in both measures, Livewire got in touch to ask what we expect from here, and what investors can do about it. Show More

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The five charts the experts are watching right now

Livewire Exclusive

Bond markets recently slapped equity investors in the face with a 50-basis point reminder of who is really in charge here. As the famous quote from James Carville goes: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or... Show More

Right into the danger zone...

Brett Gillespie

It was February 4th, 1994, and I was on a plane to LA from Sydney. I was treating myself to 4-week holiday skiing in Aspen and then on to New York; 1993 had been a good year. Initially when my boss, Richard Farleigh, had resigned 10 months earlier I wasn’t... Show More

The outlook for Australian house prices

Chris Rands

Over the past 15 years Australian house prices have been on an incredible run, resulting in Australian households becoming some of the most indebted in the world. So what is the economic cost of Australia’s sky high property prices and what could it mean for property prices in 2018? Show More

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Market correction: What does it all mean?

Craig James

The US Dow Jones has fallen by over 1,800 points or 7.1 per cent over the past two days. After hitting record highs on January 26, the Dow Jones index has eased to 2-month lows. Show More

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Does Fixed Income Still Diversify Portfolio Risk?

Gopi Karunakaran

As global expectations of rising interest rates and inflation begin to become more mainstream, investors are wise to pause and reflect on what this means for their overall portfolios. Against this backdrop, both long-term and more recent data strongly suggests that simply holding passive allocations to government bonds may not... Show More

Multiple fault lines opening for the Aussie Dollar

Elizabeth Moran

One month into 2018 and the AUD has punched above 80 US cents and is looking pretty perky. It is trading around its highs against the beleaguered USD since 2014. So, why is it up here again? Can it last? Is it time to sell? Or strap in for a... Show More

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Quin: Australia is overdue a recession

Livewire Exclusive

Richard Quin, Lead Portfolio manager of Bentham Asset Management, is one of Australia’s most seasoned and successful credit investors. While the asset class remains overlooked and underrepresented in many Australian portfolios, there are two bets he’s making right now that should grab your attention. The first position is that long-term... Show More

Sharp fall for the Aussie as US bond yields pass Australian bond yields?

Stephen Koukoulas

US bond yields are rising more quickly than the equivalent Australian yields. The 10 year government bond in the US is now yielding 2.71 percent, just 14 basis points below the Australian 10-year bond and if the recent trends in the relative economic fundamentals of the two countries is sustained,... Show More

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Sifting through the “massive” hype of US tax cuts

Dr Don Hamson

Jennifer Westacott, the CEO of the Business Council of Australia recently pointed out that if the US moves and other nation follow through with their pledges, Australia could become the 2nd highest taxing nation in the OECD. Show More

The ten things to watch in 2018

Saul Eslake

Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More

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US bond yields heading higher in 2018

Elizabeth Moran

In this second of a three-part series from guest contributor, ex ANZ Chief Economist, Warren Hogan, this note assesses the outlook for US bond yields and explains why the US 10 year Treasury yield could be heading for 3.50%. Show More

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Why Australian interest rates will rise in 2018

Elizabeth Moran

First in a three-part series from guest contributor, ex ANZ Chief Economist, Warren Hogan, this note assesses the outlook for Australia’s short-term interest rates. Show More

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The 8 big issues for 2018

Craig James

For the past 16 years we have produced “The Big Issues” report – a report that has sought to highlight the issues that are expected to influence the economy over the forthcoming 12 months. Show More

Will the RBA hike in 2018?

Alex Joiner

The most important question for 2018 in an Australian context will be whether the economy is strong enough for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to start removing policy accommodation. That is to say, to have confidently begun a tightening cycle. This is the expectation of most market economists and... Show More

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