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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Chart of the day: Is our government debt sustainable?

“Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.” Milton Friedman, Economist, 1912-2006Policy makers have responded rapidly to the...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The Lucky Country - 3 reasons why Australia will emerge better than most

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country! Donald Horne’s original...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Signs of recovery... but are equities too expensive?

The global community continued to battle the COVID-19 pandemic through April, with an increasing number of economies entering or extending near-entire...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Chart of the day: More Aussie jobs lost…but is the pace slowing?

“My model for business is The Beatles: They were four guys that kept each others’ negative tendencies in check; they balanced each other. And the total was greater...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Have central banks done enough to save the economy from depression?

In the last month or so, governments and central banks have been the difference between markets continuing to fall and markets starting to find a bit more support....
Pengana Capital Group
Pengana Capital Group
Macro

Consumer stimulus vs Income shock - who wins?

Record declines in employment and hours worked have been met with record policy stimulus. In this note, I delve into the scale of the income shock facing the consumer...
Tim Toohey
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Don't Dismiss Deflation: Implications for Real Yields and Risk Assets

So much of asset pricing hinges on selecting an appropriate discount rate, which is how we transform future cash flows into a value today. In fixed income we have the...
Chamath De Silva
Chamath De Silva
BetaShares
Macro

Chart of the day: Super funds facing some net inflow pressures?

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money .” Margaret ThatcherAs of 30 April, the ATO has approved 900,000 superannuation...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Chart of the day: A look at the US equities reporting season

With a little over half of the companies in the US S&P 500 index having reported Q1 earnings to date, there are plenty of ways to slice and dice the results. An...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Hundreds of Thousands of Small Businesses are Near Death

In looking at the health of the Australian economy and its ability to recover from Coronavirus shutdowns it is easy to focus on the big end of town. The insolvency of...
QAN
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Contrary to most predictions, Aussie house prices rose in April (+ analysis)

I cannot remember a time when there was more universal agreement amongst analysts that Aussie house prices are going to plummet. Unusually, the major banks are also...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chart of the day: So much ominous data

“If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” George SorosThe past couple of days have...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The coronavirus is tearing at the fragilities of Italy and the eurozone

‘il Boom’ is how Italians describe the ‘great transformation’ of Italy over the 1950s and 1960s when a poor country turned itself into a modern industrial powerhouse...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan
Macro

Chart of the day: Could FX volatility be much lower from here?

“When an investor focuses on short-term investments, he or she is observing the variability of the portfolio, not the returns – in short, being fooled by randomness."...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Is the Global COVID-19 Infection Curve Peaking?

We now look to be passing through the current peak of global infections for the coronavirus induced COVID-19 disease according to our live data-tracking systems and...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chart of the day: COVID-19 deaths per capita - Europe vs. Asia/Australia

"Lockdown, which has resulted in a halt to economic activity, is not sustainable – it is damaging to society, to people's aspiration and to the economy...we need to...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The Great Unshackling: Political Capital vs Excess Fear

Discussions on unwinding COVID-related social distancing measures have moved to the fore. Australia’s leaders have managed the crisis relatively well so far. In...
Ken Liow
Realm Investment House
Macro

Chart of the day: Can easing financial conditions drive surprise reversal?

The US economic surprise index (by Citigroup) has plunged over the past month as forecasters and investors have struggled to get their heads around just how bad the...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Why hold government bonds if the yields are so low?

One of our most frequent investor questions is around our government bond holdings and the unique risks that low-interest rates present.Government (as opposed to...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Energy price rout threatens A$ stability

A negative price for US crude oil provided much fascination this week. The May West Texas Intermediate oil contract closed at -$37.63 per barrel on Monday. But the...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

House prices will not fall sharply

In the AFR today I write that everyone loves a contrarian position, and I enjoy betting against conventional wisdom (read the full column by clicking on that link, or...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Open Letter to Prime Minister from Concerned Australians on Need to Exit COVID-19 Lockdown

An Open Letter from Concerned Australians on Trade-offs During the COVID-19 Crisis The views expressed are those of the signatories and not necessarily those of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Are equities disconnected from the real economy?

In this continually-evolving crisis, we share a brief summary of how we are assessing the risks for our global equity portfolios. THE CORONAVIRUS The most important...
Andrew Macken
Montaka Global Investments
Macro

Hamish Douglass - COVID-19, a Black Swan event

In what Hamish calls a classic Black Swan event, he and David discuss the recent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across global financial markets. Initially presenting...
David Clark
Koda Capital
Macro

Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?

The blanket coverage of coronavirus and its impact on the economy can lead to a lot of confusion right now. Some reports are hopeful of anti-viral drugs, others say a...
Shane Oliver
AMP
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