Home Wires

Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Chart of the day: Can easing financial conditions drive surprise reversal?

The US economic surprise index (by Citigroup) has plunged over the past month as forecasters and investors have struggled to get their heads around just how bad the...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Why hold government bonds if the yields are so low?

One of our most frequent investor questions is around our government bond holdings and the unique risks that low-interest rates present.Government (as opposed to...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Energy price rout threatens A$ stability

A negative price for US crude oil provided much fascination this week. The May West Texas Intermediate oil contract closed at -$37.63 per barrel on Monday. But the...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

House prices will not fall sharply

In the AFR today I write that everyone loves a contrarian position, and I enjoy betting against conventional wisdom (read the full column by clicking on that link, or...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Open Letter to Prime Minister from Concerned Australians on Need to Exit COVID-19 Lockdown

An Open Letter from Concerned Australians on Trade-offs During the COVID-19 Crisis The views expressed are those of the signatories and not necessarily those of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Are equities disconnected from the real economy?

In this continually-evolving crisis, we share a brief summary of how we are assessing the risks for our global equity portfolios. THE CORONAVIRUS The most important...
Andrew Macken
Montaka Global Investments
Macro

Hamish Douglass - COVID-19, a Black Swan event

In what Hamish calls a classic Black Swan event, he and David discuss the recent impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across global financial markets. Initially presenting...
David Clark
Koda Capital
Macro

Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel – what does it mean for investors?

The blanket coverage of coronavirus and its impact on the economy can lead to a lot of confusion right now. Some reports are hopeful of anti-viral drugs, others say a...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Is this just a band-aid on a bullet wound?

These are extraordinary times and they have elicited extraordinary measures from government and central banking authorities the world over, as COVID-19 has infiltrated...
Chris Manuell, CMT
Chris Manuell, CMT
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

Chart of the day: Evidence still supports short (and very sharp) recession

“It far better to light the candle than to curse the darkness” William L. Watkinson, 1907Australia is almost certainly experiencing a recession. Yet, while consensus...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Chart of the day: Over 700,000 Aussie jobs lost

Economists have been asking for an equivalent of the US monthly payrolls series in Australia for decades. Sure, the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) monthly jobs...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Is COVID-19 the market correction "we had to have"?

It may not be surprising that market volatility has soared since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, but could this also be, to misquote the famous line, the correction ‘we had...
Global X ETFs
Global X ETFs
Macro

Short and Sharp: The weeks when decades happened

Although the second quarter of 2020 will mark the worst quarter for United States and global growth since World War II, market uncertainty and peak fear have passed...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Chart of the day: Will European equities underperform?

“There can be no doubt that the knowledge of logic is of considerable practical importance for everyone who desires to think and to infer correctly” Alfred...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Australia victim of containment success: it may have massively over-stimulated and needs to exit fast...

Australia's exceptional efforts in flattening the COVID-19 curve quickly and crushing viral transmissions means that we may be a victim of our own success. The...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Where to From Here?

Charting a path of recovery and a return to normality at the moment is very challenging, however we believe that recovery in global growth will start in Q3. The...
Andrew McAuley
Credit Suisse
Macro

Response not enough to avoid a long and deep recession

Hamish Douglass speaks to Kevin Warsh, a former Member of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, and presidential adviser on economic policy to...
Magellan Investment Partners
Magellan
Macro

Bears are underestimating policymakers at their own peril

When commentators are asked about expected central bank behaviour, they generally fall even subconsciously between two camps, what the central banks should do and what...
Mark Todd
Mark Todd
Bank of China
Macro

Chart of the day: Capacity utilisation and unemployment

“New moon on Monday, And a fire dance through the night, I stayed the cold day with a lonely satellite” Duran Duran Last week’s NAB business survey revealed just how...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The Backstory Behind "Team Australia"

There is a good feature by Pamela Williams in the AFR today about the emergence of the "Team Australia" consortium in response to the Great Virus Crisis, which you can...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why most COVID-19 forecasts were wrong...

In an yet-to-be-published interview with an overseas media outlet, one of my data scientists touches on the shortcomings associated with the theoretical approaches...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Not the time to be rushing into markets

Investors have had a lot to digest over the last four to six weeks and certainly the pace of change, the pace of the news flow, has been unprecedented. Whether I apply...
Simon Doyle
Schroders
Macro

Chart of the day: China credit growth soars

(Ed's update: China's official GDP figures were unveiled after this article was published. Its economy contracted 6.8% in Q1, the worst performance since 1992). Gross...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Beware when the market and the economy are out of sync

Following its one-month 36 per cent decline from peak (20 February 2020) to its low (23 March 2020), the ASX200 has bounced 20 per cent. That’s a return most investors...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

Building resilient portfolios in tough times

We are in unprecedented times. Governments have deliberately, and very understandably, tipped economies into severe recession, or as the Australian Prime Minister put...
Bruno Paulson
Morgan Stanley IM
2151-2175 of 2795