In early 2018 I wrote on Livewire that the year ahead would be a mixed bag for housing, as tightness in markets like Hobart contrasted the negative outlook for Sydney, which appeared to be at a market-top. As the year played out, a number of the concerns raised came to... Show More
The housing market has taken a nosedive this year. And furniture retailer Nick Scali (NCK), our short pick for Livewire last December is feeling the heat. The stock price is down about 20%. But the company is still to see the worst of the housing market pain. So here’s why... Show More
This time last year, I was nominated to put forward my best stock idea at the Future Generation Investment Forum. The stock I chose was HRL Holdings. At the time Livewire reached out to reflect on the thesis, HRL had gained 50%. Off the back of their recent AGM however,... Show More
A year ago, the property boom was showing signs of fading and we expected property prices to fall in Sydney and Melbourne by around 5-10%. Home prices were overvalued, affordability was very poor and tightening bank lending standards in response to pressure from the bank regulator APRA was expected to... Show More
This time last year, we nominated a high conviction small cap for Livewire in an out-of-favour sector, healthcare. One of our preferred exposures was Integrated Diagnostics (ASX: IDX). Pleasingly, developments since have either delivered on our expectations or exceeded them resulting in the share price being up 41% at the... Show More
The problem with the entire residential narrative is that it is based on short-term perspectives. Taking a long-term view, house price growth over the last six years is still exceptionally strong. Show More
A year ago we wrote an article about ‘5 CEOs Who Tick All the Boxes’ based on the ASX listed CEOs who we thought showed similarities to Tom Murphy. For those unfamiliar, Tom Murphy was the once in a lifetime CEO of US media conglomerate Capital Cities who started out... Show More
In a video filmed with Livewire this time last year, we believed stock prices had been moved more by macro events than by individual outlooks, resulting in fertile ground for stock pickers. One such stock was Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG). Since then, the stock has risen by 35%, and Livewire... Show More
Last year we called out the compelling value in Sirtex, which had been through a very rough patch. Livewire asked us to review our thesis on the stock, which has more than doubled since, and to scour today’s market for an out-of-favour stock with attractive risk-reward characteristics. Show More
In each of the previous 5 years, there have been several obvious candidates from which to ‘award’ the yield trap of the year. 2018 was harder. One could easily pick on AMP. But a combination of a lofty starting share price and lack of asset sales, due to management overhaul... Show More
Someone famously once said, “The best qualification of a prophet is to have a good memory.” When trying to identify potential opportunities within the resource sector, it’s always handy to have some grasp of history. In the case of our vanadium call about 12 months ago, we utilised our awareness... Show More
Monash Investors first discussed Emeco back in early September 2017, “A cyclical stock on its way back up” when its share price was 18c. Now at 35.5c it’s almost doubled, having touched 41c along the way, and it has been one of the best contributors to our last 12 months'... Show More
In our piece titled ‘Is this the Next Credit Corp?’ in May 2017, we made the case for why we considered PNC to be the standout amongst emerging companies on our radar. At the time the share price was trading at $2.13, but it has since increased by around... Show More
In September of last year, I nominated a stock on Livewire where I felt the short sellers had it wrong. The stock I chose was Flight Centre Travel Group (ASX: FLT), as I felt industry dynamics were improving, the company was undergoing a cost out program, and FLT also had... Show More
This time last year, at Livewire Live we flagged a likely resurgence of volatility and highlighted some of the factors that we believed would drive this. In this exclusive report for Livewire, I review the thesis and explain why we expect much more extreme reactions going forward. Show More
This time last year, we outlined our positive view on Corporate Travel Management (CTD) at Livewire Live. At the time, it had a large and growing short interest position, but we believed the market was not valuing the long-term opportunity appropriately. Show More
BHP has delivered for shareholders in the 12 months since we laid out our bullish thesis on Livewire which you can see here. Collectively Andrew Mackenzie as CEO and the recently installed Chairman Ken MacKenzie have done a good job in managing the business and the balance sheet. Show More
Last July we highlighted 5 stocks that we believed could double cash flow over 5 years. Twelve months on we review how they have performed, and discuss the reasons for the one that disappointed. Show More
Around 12 months ago, I shared my 10 predictions for FY18. These included a peak for the housing market, struggling retail stocks, and global macroeconomic strength. It was great to see that a lot of these predictions proved true. With FY18 now over, Livewire have asked for my predictions for... Show More
Last year I wrote about the key risks facing Australia’s major banks, focusing on APRA’s definition of “unquestionably” strong, and explained why we had lightened weightings in the banks. Here I update on our view for Livewire. In the original wire, which you can see here, I wrote: Show More