Similar to 2015, the profit taking risk in the August/September period is rising as we move past reporting season on stretched multiples. The US Fed outlook statements are driving rate hike expectations that are unlikely to be met. The US rate cycle has moved from an uncertain rinse cycle to a Fed jawboning spin cycle. The risk of devaluation driven by rate hikes is pushing markets into profit taking. We continue to expect the US Fed to move in December, while the lack of action in September or any weak US economic data in the meantime should turn market sentiment back to positive mode. (VIEW LINK)
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