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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Inflation: The damaging misjudgement

Why do we trust money? Paper money or fiat currency* is essentially about trust. We exchange things for money: our labour, something we own like a house or car, or a...
Hugh Giddy
IML
Macro

An inversion of M2 and the CPI: a reliable recession signal

With the US’ M2 growth decelerating sharply, as opposed to inflation, a significant recession should now be the major concern Alongside the US delivering its second...
Steven Anastasiou
Economics Uncovered
Macro

Aussie house prices now falling at more than a 15% annual rate

Australian home values are now shrinking at an annualised rate that exceeds 15% based on the three months of CoreLogic compositionally-adjusted index data to 10...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why inflation globally should come down

“There’s a tendency for markets to focus on the present and extrapolate it forever”, said Olivier Blanchard, a well-respected economist formally of the IMF. We could...
Janu Chan
Bitesized Economics
Macro

Aussie recession unlikely: Why this is bullish for equities and bonds

Australia’s economy is remarkably strong right now. I also argue it has the momentum to carry this strength into year-end. Rates are accommodative, and in this wire,...
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
Macro

Why the RBA's rate hiking plans are due for a slowdown

In justifying another 50 basis point rate hike, the RBA reiterated that inflation is the highest it’s been since the early 1990s and it is set to rise further with...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Great Aussie housing bust gets worse: August officially the worst month since 1983

CoreLogic have just released their official housing data for the entire month of August 2022, which confirms what we feared: both the 5 capital city and 8 capital...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Up to one-third of all Australian and US companies could be "Zombies"

Since 2019, we have been warning about the rise of "zombie companies" kept alive by perpetually cheap money care of the near-zero interest rate and QE-to-infinity...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why Jerome Powell’s speech shouldn't have surprised you

Jerome Powell chairs the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve. His speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium disappointed and even shocked many people. It’s...
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

Aussie house prices suffer biggest monthly fall in August since 1983

The great Aussie housing collapse continues to break new records with CoreLogic's 5 capital city index losing more than 1.44% in the first 29 days of August, which...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why the S&P 500's recent surge is not a bear market rally

After months of beating around the bush, the Fed finally marshalled a very clear, concise message for markets at the Jackson Hole Forum. And the message was this....
Isaac Poole
Ascalon Capital
Macro

What can we expect at the Fed's next meeting on interest rates?

Many in the financial community tuned into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday for clues on the size of the central bank's next...
Daniel Siluk
Kapstream
Macro

Can investors weather this latest China crisis?

China is facing widespread droughts, emulating the recent heatwaves and crises experienced across Europe – the threat of these droughts is far reaching for...
Max Pacella
Rest Super
Macro

CIA changes its view on China

It’s worth further reflecting on some of the bigger macro risks that loom ahead. Let’s start with the recent remarks of the CIA Director, William J. Burns, on China...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Central bankers need to talk to equity analysts about balance sheets

The Annual Central Banker jamboree at Jackson Hole this weekend is likely to feature the usual set of earnest presentations about Growth and Inflation and the need to...
Mark Tinker
Toscafund HK Limited and Market Thinking Limited
Macro

Aussie housing crash update: Prices collapse again in August

Sydney prices are on track for another, truly massive, circa 2% per month decline according to CoreLogic data. They fell 2.2% in July, the worst outcome in around 40...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Higher US interest rates test the world

New York’s Plaza Hotel, in financial circles, is best known for when the finance ministers of France, Japan, the UK, the US and West Germany gathered in 1985 to...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan Investment Partners
Macro

An update on interest rate markets

After the most recent FOMC meeting, we have seen numerous changes to forward probabilities within the fixed income market. This article aims to provide investors...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Chart of the Week - China Turns to Stimulus

China Stimulus: This week the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut their benchmark monetary policy interest rate by 5 basis points to 3.65% (and reduced the 5-year...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Signal or Noise

Signal or Noise: The August Reporting Season Special

A lot has happened since Signal or Noise last appeared on your screens in June. The US entered a technical recession, UK inflation hit 10%, China went into and came...
QAN
STO
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Hordes of zombie companies are about to die

In the AFR I write that this column been much more constructive on risk since late May when we determined that interest rate markets were finally pricing in the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The free money experiment is over - what happens now?

Cast your mind back to March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic was shutting the world down. To save the economy and thousands of SMEs from going bankrupt, the...
Hans Lee
Livewire Markets
Macro

Recent rally leaves global equities more vulnerable

The MSCI World index has rallied around 16% from its mid-June lows. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared even better, up 19% and 25% respectively from their June lows....
Todd Hoare
Todd Hoare
LGT Crestone
Macro

Why you should ignore this year’s reporting season

In this wire, I’m going to argue that you should more or less ignore the earnings reports that are currently hitting the ASX. As you know, reports are coming in for...
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

Howard Marks: More reasons for offensive rather than defensive investing right now

The head of Oaktree Capital uses an automotive analogy to answer a question that’s on the minds of many investors today: How should you think about risk? Marks says...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
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