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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Expert Insights

The one thing that could cause market Armageddon

Say what you will about the film, but I thoroughly enjoyed 1998-smash Armageddon. For those who haven't seen it, NASA agents discover a large asteroid is set to hit...
Ally Selby
Livewire Markets
Macro

Only one industry currently meets the RBA's wage test for rate rises

An analysis of the industry split of wages shows why the RBA is sceptical that wages can accelerate fast enough to justify market expectations of rate hikes next year....
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Mortgage holders could be in for a shock as the next rate hike looms

Much has been written about how a deterioration in residential mortgage lending standards, questionable structuring and indiscriminate buying of AAA-rated bonds led...
Pete Robinson
Challenger Investment Management
Expert Insights

The one thing that could stop the house price party

Everyone loves a house party until the punch bowl is taken away and the lights are turned on. In this video, Lucerne Investment Partners' Michael Houghton explains why...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

The Metaverse: Fad or future?

The Metaverse is a point in time where our digital life is worth more to us than our physical lives. While that may seem foreign to us now, here Mason Steven's Mike...
Mike Young
Mike Young
Macro

Supply bottlenecks, a looming energy shock, and 3 reasons for optimism

As global supply chains remain stretched, fund manager Franklin Templeton recently assembled a handful of its economists to debate China's cooling economy, inflation,...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

Which sectors will outperform as the 'Titanic' slowly turns post-COVID

In the 1970s, inflation had a critical effect on pushing rates higher, further entrenching inflationary expectations. According to the RBA, the three-month bank bill...
Kristiaan Rehder
Kardinia Capital
Macro

The little known, $317bn to $430bn QE4 wave that will swamp QE3...

Folks are starting to turn their minds to what life looks like after the end of the RBA's bond purchase program. There's a fairly robust consensus that Martin Place...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why banks raising rates might sideline RBA

In the AFR this weekend, I write that financial markets are probably not focussed enough on the fact that Aussie banks unilaterally lifting mortgage rates has huge...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

A key cause of inflation may be turning

'One swallow does not a summer make'... but with shipments for the Black Friday sales (in the US) and Christmas shopping now largely in transit on ocean shipping...
Alastair MacLeod
Elston Asset Management
Expert Insights

There's more to investing than equities, bonds, and property

There's a world of investments outside the traditional categories of equities, bonds and property, says Lucerne Investment Partners' Michael Houghton. An example of a...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Three things that should worry everyone

There are three prices that ultimately matter for the world, explains Andrew Canobi from Franklin Templeton. The price of oil, the value of the US Dollar, and the US...
Andrew Canobi
Franklin Templeton
Macro

Core inflation is higher than we think: will the RBA look through it?

Government subsidies have limited the effect of sharply higher construction costs on inflation, but new home prices will soon bounce back as the subsidies fade,...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why Aussie house prices will fall circa 20% when the RBA hikes interest rates

After Christopher Joye from Coolabah Capital recently wrote that house prices were expected to fall, some readers were shocked, having painted him as the archetypal...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The first rate rise to hit in 2023, what ditching the 3-year yield-curve target means, and other hot takes on the RBA's decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday left the official interest rate of 0.1% unchanged but abandoned the Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yield curve target...
Glenn Freeman
Livewire Markets
Macro

It's time to dissect ESG as smart money floods the sector

Over the last few decades, a growing number of investors have been willing to do something which it seems Scott Morrison is unwilling to do in Rome: put their money...
BHP
Max Pacella
Rest Super
Macro

House prices to fall 15%-25% after the first 100bps of RBA hikes

[See a much more detailed update and extension to this analysis here.]In the AFR today I write that the normalisation of Australian inflation, and the Reserve Bank of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

A little "stag" and a little "flation"

In this month’s Insight, we tackle the great stagflation debate (economic stagnation + high inflation). There is no question that inflation has proved less transitory...
Alex Cathcart
Drummond Capital Partners
Macro

'Reaching for yield' takes on a risky hue

William White, a Canadian, became the top economist at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) over a 14-year career to 2008 at the bank owned by central banks....
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan
Macro

Central banks running too fast or too slow?

Short dated bonds have aggressively repriced as inflation expectations rise and fears creep in that central bankers maybe heading towards a policy mistake as longer...
Kerry Craig
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Macro

Cryptocurrency regulation: The elephant in the room

Bitcoin reclaimed its all-time-highs last week, and it seems like time that we examine its largest threat – regulation. As levels of adoption and awareness continue to...
Mike Young
Mike Young
Macro

Regulated Utilities: The epicentre of the global energy transition

Renewable energy companies are the typical ‘go-to’ exposure for the multi-generational thematic of energy transition. However, some renewable energy investments can...
Tim Humphreys
Ausbil
Macro

Rising bond yields and the end of the supercycle bull market

A supercycle bull market in bonds, which saw 10-year yields fall from around 16% to lows last year of around zero (and lower still in some countries) has been a key...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

How to buy the new hydrogen economy

In a world grappling with the risk of energy crises, hydrogen may represent one of the most exciting and varied opportunities to expand our renewable energy grid, and...
Max Pacella
Rest Super
Macro

Bond market tries to bully RBA

In the AFR I write that two big dramas playing out this week are the bond market trying to bully Martin Place into tightening monetary policy and allegations that NSW...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
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