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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Australia slides into a "per capita recession"

Much has been made of Australia’s nearly 28 years without a recession. Despite many seeing recession as inevitable in response to the 1997 Asian crisis, the 2000-2003...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

The RBA’s view on housing in 7 charts

RBA Governor, Phillip Lowe, opened his speech at the AFR Business Summit this morning by saying “Australians watch housing markets intensely, perhaps more so than...
NCK
Patrick Poke
A Rich Life
Macro

Australian sharemarket wins gold

Each year Credit Suisse produces the Global Investment Returns Yearbook in collaboration with the London Business School. It is an analysis of the long-run performance...
Andrew McAuley
Credit Suisse
Macro

Is an EU/China trade war next?

The following is an extract from a note that was recently sent to investors in the Montaka Global Fund. At Montaka, we believe there are five major forces that will...
Andrew Macken
Montaka Global Investments
Macro

The Fed’s critical next move

The world’s most powerful central bank, the Fed, has hiked rates nine times since 2015. After a policy of providing guidance, and sticking to it, the Fed abruptly...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Investing wisdom from the latest Buffett letter

Over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway released Warren Buffett’s annual letter to investors. There’s little doubt in my mind that this is the single most widely read...
Patrick Poke
A Rich Life
Macro

The Aussie dollar's wild ride

The Aussie dollar is about flat over the week, around 71 US cents, but it has been very volatile. Australia’s key data releases on wages and employment were quite...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

Making the case for a cut

The Australian economy performed well during 2018 with rising GDP, lower unemployment and stable inflation. Despite this, the outlook for 2019 is not as positive, as a...
Chris Rands
Chris Rands
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

FINALLY Australia gets interesting

January 1996. My wife was 8 months pregnant with our first child. I was a proprietary trader at Bankers Trust (had been since 1991), meaning I took macro views on...
Brett Gillespie
Brett Gillespie
Global Macro
Macro

Quantitative Un-Easiness

Perhaps simply ‘queasiness’ is more fitting. Certainly that’s an apt feeling among investors having stomached sharp falls in risk asset prices in the last quarter of...
Kapstream Capital
Kapstream
Macro

Australia following Britain's GFC playbook

Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, recently sounded the recession alarm on the Australian economy. We had the chance to sit down...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Australia in 2019/2020: Recession likely, rates heading to zero

Excess in the Australian housing market has been widely discussed by investors and commentators for a number of years. Underpinned by cheap money, house prices have...
Chris Watling
Longview Economics
Rapid Fire

Vimal Gor: The world can’t handle higher rates

Vimal Gor, Head of Bond, Income and Defensive Strategies at Pendal Group, says there’s just one fundamental driver of all asset prices. That driver is liquidity and...
James Marlay
Livewire Markets
Macro

Why do you pay attention to financial forecasts?

It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median...
Gopi Karunakaran
Ardea Investment Management
Macro

Reasons to be Cheerful

When I last published to Livewire in May 2018, the macro environment was distinctly negative for risk assets. The USD value of global money supply had been contracting...
Etienne Alexiou
Etienne Alexiou
Belay Capital
Macro

Five signals we’re watching in 2019

Peering in the rear-view mirror, 2018 could be characterised by slowing global growth; central bank policy tightening; and escalating geo-political risk. These are not...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Five minute quick-take on the Royal Commission findings

With the results of the Hayne Royal Commission now available for all to see (final report here), fund managers, journalists, and bankers everywhere are scrambling to...
Patrick Poke
A Rich Life
Macro

Biggest house price falls in 40 years...

In my column today I reveal that Australia is now officially experiencing the biggest house price falls on record in almost 40 years: home values across the five...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

VGI's hedge fund top of the pops

In my column today I argue that to have any hope of divining the prospects for 2019, one has to first solve the Rubik’s Cube that was 2018 in which the most overvalued...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Wonderful companies at depressed valuations

As Trump pressured China with trade wars, manufacturing indices around the world showed steady declines. I attribute this to falling business confidence, leading to...
Garry Laurence
Profeta Investments
Macro

Australian housing downturn Q&A – how bad will it get?

The housing cycle and house prices always incite high interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and poor affordability – particularly in...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Correction or bear market? 6 charts that analyse market declines

The market turmoil that began in early 2018 intensified later in the year, as the S&P 500 Composite Index declined nearly 20% between its September peak and late...
Paul Hennessy
Capital Group
Macro

Disquiet is growing

Paypal founder Peter Thiel predicted in his 2014 Wall Street Journal essay ‘Competition is for losers’ that Silicon Valley would become the centre of the global...
abrdn .
abrdn
Macro

Can a recession be predicted? My data might surprise you.

Let’s start by defining what a recession actually is. Google’s dictionary defines it as ‘a period of temporary economic decline during which trading and industrial...
Scott Shuttleworth
Scott Shuttleworth
Vega Capital
Macro

10 charts to watch in 2019

I spent a lot of time in the 2018 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst!). But...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
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