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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Why Magellan added a bit of Buffett to the mix

The Federal Reserve's recent about-face on interest rates – holding the federal funds target rate range to 2.25% to 2.50% following some very rocky markets and modest...
Nick Grove
Nick Grove
Livewire Markets
Macro

If Labor Wins, the Budget Surplus Could be Short-Lived

From an economics perspective, the Federal election is shaping up as one to forget. Australia’s economic growth is currently running at less than our population...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Rate cut talk sinks the Aussie

The Aussie dollar has fallen more than a cent this week, with the sharpest move coming in response to Australia’s Q1 inflation data on Wednesday. The below-consensus...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

The post GFC 'cheap money' bubbles are popping

For most of the last 10 years, the world’s major central banks have been creating significant amounts of cheap money. This has been primarily achieved with various QE...
Chris Watling
Longview Economics
Macro

Reflections on Dinny McMahon’s Book on China’s Great Wall of Debt

The debate over the longevity of the economic boom in China has long divided economists and financial market participants. On one side are believers that China’s...
BHP
FMG
RIO
+2
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

What if monetary policy fails?

I came across a person in the street wearing a t-shirt that had printed on it “What if Google was wrong?” It was unnerving. Google is the answer to every question from...
Tracey McNaughton
Tracey McNaughton
Escala Partners
Macro

Modern Monetary Theory, and why you’re about to hear a lot more about it

If you’re paying attention to US politics, you may be aware of an emerging new economic theory supported by many US Democrats, including Congress ‘freshman’ Alexandria...
Chris Bedingfield
Quay Global Investors
Macro

You can go your own way

The year is 1991. I’m trading Australian interest rates on the proprietary desk for Bankers Trust. The desk is headed by Richard Farleigh. And the quarterly CPI number...
Brett Gillespie
Brett Gillespie
Global Macro
Macro

Tim Toohey's macro masterclass

It’s a rare opportunity to get to sit down with an economist of the calibre of Tim Toohey from Ellerston Capital. He was formerly the Managing Director, Chief...
The Rules of Investing
Livewire Markets
Macro

You can’t argue with the numbers

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released its latest Construction Work Done figures for the December quarter. Not surprising, residential housing activity looks...
Chris Rands
Chris Rands
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Are we reading bond market signals the wrong way?

There’s been a lot of talk of inverted yield curves in the US and whether they portend a recession or a stock market crash. But, I wonder whether we need to watch the...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

The impact of Federal elections on investment markets

Some might be forgiven for thinking the wheels have fallen off Australian politics over the past decade with the same number of PM changes as Italy, a fractured...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

The upheaval in China's shadow banking sector

There has been a material slowdown in China’s growth rate in recent years which in part is due to regulatory upheaval in the shadow banking sector. Here we offer an...
Sam Ferraro
Sam Ferraro
Macro

We have a money printing machine and we are not afraid to use it

The Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference is an annual event bringing together the best business and investment minds globally. At the Conference just concluded we...
Andrew McAuley
Credit Suisse
Macro

On the couch with the Budget

The minority of Australian TV viewers that chose the Budget Address rather than tuning in to Married at First Sight were still entertained by coverage that combined...
Clime Investment Management
Clime Investment Management
Clime Investment Management
Macro

Is politics keeping a lid on the Aussie dollar?

The Australian dollar has emerged a little stronger after a very busy week. Most of the headlines were positive, with the one real negative coming from the RBA. While...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

Special report | Federal Budget 2019-20

On 2 April 2019, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered Australia’s federal budget for 2019-20. Coming ahead of a likely May federal election, the budget lays the...
LGT Crestone
LGT Crestone
Macro

Reserve Bank will be acting too late to stop an Australian recession

After 27 years, the Australian economy is finally facing a recession. Neither monetary nor fiscal policy look set to save it and yet again we appear highly dependent...
Matthew Haupt
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

Do we see an upside for the Aussie dollar?

Obviously in the near term, week-to-week, month-to-month it’s impossible to predict currencies, but over any medium-term period – you can at least, in our view, make...
Andrew Macken
Montaka Global Investments
Macro

Complexity Premia on the Budget Surplus, Banks, Housing, RMBS, Hybrids and More

First, a big thanks for the incredible interest in, and downloads of, our Complexity Premia podcast! We have just published the third episode where we: discuss...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBNZ joins the dovish stampede

The US dollar was stronger against almost all major currencies this week. This was not so much due to positive news on the US economy but instead in response to...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

13 charts that show just how insane monetary policy really is

Someone (maybe it was Albert Einstein) once opined that: “Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results” It is our view that...
John Abernethy
Clime Asset Management
Macro

A megatrend shaping the world

With more than 50 per cent of the global population under 30 living in emerging market countries, the emerging market story is expected to remain a compelling...
Todd Hoare
Todd Hoare
LGT Crestone
Expert Insights

Don’t rule out a U.S. downturn

U.S. consumer confidence is high, unemployment is well below historical averages, while supply constraints mean that plenty of jobs are now within reach for many...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

As the Fed hits pause, 3 perspectives on the markets

It finally happened. After a few months of hovering over the policy pause button, the Federal Reserve officially halted interest rate hikes. For the first time in 10...
Matt Reynolds
Matt Reynolds
Capital Group
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