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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

De-globalisation is reshaping our world

In the AFR I write today that if you believe the excerpts from John Bolton’s new book on his term as national security adviser to President Donald Trump, the putative...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

UK slows bond purchases

“The emerging evidence suggests that the fall in global and UK GDP in 2020 Q2 will be less severe than set out in the May Report. Although stronger than expected, it...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The flood of money and its lasting impact on our economy

When the pandemic hit earlier this year, policy makers around the world were swift with their responses. As at June 2020, they have provided a total of US $7 trillion...
Simon Stevenson
Simon Stevenson
Schroders
Macro

The demographic timebomb that changes everything

Released by US film producer Mike Moore, the documentary Planet of the Humans tells how renewable sources of energy are flawed solutions to mitigate the dangers of...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan
Macro

Is the economy on the ropes, or getting back on its feet?

Recent economic surveys paint a grim picture of business conditions, job ads and home lending. The question is: can the economy bounce back from the pummeling it took...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

EU leaders jump—but is it positive for equities?

“Every day, you have to prove yourself and convince - move forward and challenge yourself. And doubt all the time.” Christine Lagarde, ECB President (and former IMF...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

When stock market robots dream, do sheep follow?

There is a decent argument that stock markets have condensed an entire three-year cycle into three months. While there are other factors at play, robotic trading is...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases?

The past week has seen a flurry of concerns about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases. It started when US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci warned the...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

US retail rebounds

“My expectations were reduced to zero when I was 21. Everything since then has been a bonus." Stephen W. Hawking, 1942-2018A number of risks to the outlook have...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The biggest theme of the digital revolution (and 3 ways to play it)

The cloud computing ecosystem includes Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) and Software-as-a-service (SaaS). IaaS is a form of cloud computing that provides virtual...
Jeremy Gibson
Munro Partners
Macro

A sobering economic outlook

After basking in fever pitch risk-on sentiment in the previous week, global markets slumped last week as dour economic forecasts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and a...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

Why are we paying taxes?

Why do we pay taxes? It is a simple question with a seemingly simple answer. Most would agree that taxes obviously need to be paid so that the government can pay for...
Andrew Macken
Montaka Global Investments
Macro

COVID-19 in the US—the policy/data aphrodisiac

Equity markets weakened noticeably last week, with the US S&P pulling back from over 3,200 (less than 5% below pre-COVID-19 highs) to a little over 3,000 by the end of...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Australian jobs key this week

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes are due Tuesday and could add to its early-June meeting presser that indicated hope the pandemic recovery path might be a bit...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

It’s better to stay invested than sit on the sidelines

The decade-long economic expansion did not end with a whimper. The coronavirus brought it to a screeching halt.U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) fell 5% in the first...
Matt Reynolds
Matt Reynolds
Capital Group
Macro

Reflation rotation

The past few weeks have certainly seen their fair share of troubling headlines. From the waves of civil unrest gripping the United States and U.S. / China tensions...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Deglobalisation and decoupling are upon us with consequences for portfolio construction...

One of the things our team is very focussed on right now is relations between China and the West, and what this portends about the future. There is little doubt that...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Central banks vs fundamentals - making sense of the price action

In the AFR this weekend, I write that many investors who exited assets in March, or who felt they profited from the catastrophic price falls in the first few weeks of...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

China’s credit growth pick-up signals a strong growth focus

Equity markets were sharply weaker overnight, with a 5-6% drop in the US marking the first three-day decline since March. European markets were also 3-5% weaker....
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

No second COVID-19 wave, but first waves in some US states and developing countries are long and strong...

We've always argued that while sporadic outbreaks are likely, bona fide "second waves" in regions that have embraced a proper containment strategy are very unlikely....
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Full-blown, across-the-board, risk-on mode

Good news is good news. Bad news is good news. And no news is good news also! Global equities pushed higher last week as positive ‘re-opening’ data, no second waves,...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

How long will the Fed funds rate stay at 0%?

“It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously…but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Is there a way out of this financial mess?

Much has been written about the cause of this financial crisis. At its core, it’s a public health crisis that’s resulted in a financial crisis. Similarly, a lot of ink...
Darren Langer
Yarra Capital Management
Macro

Bond yields are pushing higher

While we are yet to see the likely horrific Q2 growth data from around the world, an increasing array of data, both leading indicator and hard activity data, is...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

China’s rising steel output driving commodity demand

There have been a range of new developments unfolding in commodity markets over the past week or so. Most particularly, the past weekend’s agreement by OPEC+ producers...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
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