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Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

$60bn forecast miss is huge positive, not negative, surprise (for some)...

The AFR reveals today that the Treasury's gargantuan $60bn forecast miss on the JobKeeper wage subsidy was entirely attributable to the government's reliance on the...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Weaker business conditions, profits and capex plans in focus

“Faith in the endgame helps you live through the months or years of build-up.” Jim Collins (Good to Great)The focus this week turns to the building blocks for...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

How long can we defy gravity?

Economic conditions are dire and getting worse. But risk assets have rallied sharply since the March crash, driven by central banks’ aggressive, unprecedented monetary...
Fidelity International
Fidelity International
Macro

China’s choice: prosperity or regression

In the AFR today, I write that there are only three important questions in financial markets right now. In fact, one could argue that these are the most serious...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Is the bounce in European PMIs a positive for the Australian dollar?

Overnight, European purchasing manager indices (PMIs) for May rebounded more than expected, with the composite index rising 16.4pts to 30.5pts, led by a rise in the...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg Bans Conflicted Selling Fees on LICs/LITs

In the AFR today I write that this is a great day for all Australian financial advisers and investors, and a brave decision by the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, which...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Could a rebound in cyclicals temper a valuation-led equity correction?

Overnight, US equity markets continued to recover from last week’s losses, with the S&P 500 index reaching its highest level since 6 March. Notwithstanding ongoing...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Chart of the day: Aussie jobs market stabilising

“It is our job above all in politics to tackle the big issues and to explain them, and have the honesty to say to people, 'There are no easy solutions here.'”, Malcolm...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Reading The Tea Leaves With Big Data

Market corrections tend to follow a familiar pattern, and the current sell off is no exception. The first phase is the initial shock and sell off. In this case the...
Andrew McAuley
Credit Suisse
Macro

Fauci and the Fed deliver rough news for global markets

Last week I talked about the market 'testing resistance', given the focus on whether the S&P 500 could break through recent highs of 2,930 and march onward to 3,000....
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

Chart of the day: We’re beginning to socialise…gradually

We continue to monitor nine key risks signals to guide our assessment that there is a sustained trough in risk appetite, and the risk of a re-test of 23 March risk...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Guide to market recoveries

If market declines make you nervous, then you’re not alone. Especially now, when COVID-19 and its economic impact are fuelling feelings of uncertainty around the...
Matt Reynolds
Matt Reynolds
Capital Group
Macro

Chart of the day: Can global PMIs bounce this week?

It’s interesting how quickly we adapt or accept—isolation and lockdown; complete upheaval of the way we live and work. An economic data flow that is so bad that, in...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The psychological effects of the pandemic are likely already huge

In 1930, 1,028 economists signed a letter to Herbert Hoover urging the US president to veto a bill that would raise tariffs once it became law. Hoover refused and the...
Michael Collins
Michael Collins
Magellan
Macro

Time to go negative?

Negative interest rates were a hot topic this week. President Trump repeated his support for the idea but even prior to this, several Federal Reserve officials said...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

Debt Deleveraging: is this the big one?

Will Coronavirus cause a debt crisis? And if so, what type of debt crisis? How likely is a major debt deleveraging?Ray Dalio has a number of videos and books out...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Two years of digital transformation in two months

In years to come, when we look back at the impact COVID-19 has had globally, William Hague (the former leader of the Conservative Party in the U.K.) may well turn out...
Bruno Paulson
Morgan Stanley IM
Macro

Chart of the day: Labour market slack hits a record 20% in Australia

“Progress is impossible without change; and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything”. George Bernard ShawMeasuring unemployment is a strange...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Old habits don’t die hard, they don’t die

During the depths of the market’s reaction to the Coronavirus outbreak I listened in on company and journalist conference calls and held multiple webinars and...
Roger Montgomery
Montgomery Investment Management
Macro

Chart of the day: Aussie ‘soft data’ edging up?

‘Risk-off’ has been the flavour so far this week. Overnight, US Federal Reserve Chair Powell dismissed all talk of turning to negative rates to address a downturn...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The coming surge in Australia’s budget deficit and public debt – can we afford it?

This week would have been Federal Budget week and the Australian Treasurer would have been announcing budget surpluses. Of course, coronavirus intervened, and the...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

India rises to the COVID-19 challenge

India is poised to be an economic superpower, benefiting from structural factors such as business reform, income growth, urbanisation, domestic consumption and...
Global X ETFs
Global X ETFs
Macro

New Complexity Premia podcast episode on COVID-19, EU disintegration, US-China conflicts, and hunting housing bears...

Our latest Complexity Premia podcast episode has gone live, where Ying Yi Ann Cheng and I discuss a wide range of topics, including:the impact of COVID-19 on financial...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chart of the day: China credit growth flags higher bond yields in 2021

“Over the years, I have learned that if each country could understand the other’s history, culture, and viewpoint, and accept that there are some issues that the two...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

Explaining the April US equity bounce

Key pointsUS unemployment is heading for levels not seen since the Great Depression.Despite the current dire economic outlook, US equity indices are back to...
Chris Bedingfield
Quay Global Investors
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