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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Why ScoMo Won

In my column today I analyse why ScoMo really won, noting that "during the week I advised my investors, media colleagues and friends that it would not be surprising if...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Will we see a post-election share market bounce?

The week ahead in Australia will no doubt be dominated – at least for those not more enthralled by Eurovision - by the outcome of the election which has seen the...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Yield curve inversion and the mining sector… fear not

An inverted US yield curve has successfully predicted every US recession in the last 60 years. No wonder we have been fielding questions about what a flattening, or...
Tal Lomnitzer
Janus Henderson
Macro

US volatility to present tactical opportunity

I’m writing to you from New York following a week of meetings with companies, investment banks, analysts, strategists, fund managers and executives.The timing of the...
Charlie Aitken
Charlie Aitken
Aitken Investment Management
Macro

What does populism mean for infrastructure investment globally?

Populism is spreading rapidly and globally, and becoming more aggressive in its implementation and execution. It traverses national borders and can infiltrate...
Sarah Shaw
4D Infrastructure
Macro

The 'Trant'

Trant - def: (A rant on Trump) - Trant – verb, noun - verb: Trant; 3rd person present: Trants; past tense: Tranted; past participle: Tranted; gerund or present...
Marcus Padley
Marcus Today
Macro

Modern Monetary Theory Part 2, and why you're still hearing a lot more about it

Last month we published our take on one of the biggest economic discussions today – Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).Most of the public debate to date has centred...
Chris Bedingfield
Quay Global Investors
Macro

Low growth, high volatility

Back in December last year when I sat down to write my outlook piece for the Australian market in 2019 I was surprised how positive I was relative to other investors...
Paul Taylor
Fidelity International
Macro

Top 5 charts of the week

Here are some of the standout charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

Are you not concerned?

Markets have changed and probably not for the better. Investor complacency seems to be the norm as their reliance on central banks and policymakers to come to the...
Scott Williams
Fiftyone Capital
Macro

Aussie fragile despite RBA's steady hand

It was a successful week for Westpac’s economics teams in Sydney and Auckland as they correctly predicted both the RBA’s steady hand and the RBNZ’s interest rate cut...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

Once bitten, twice shy

For my regular readers, this month’s note is a little different. Briefer with one myopic focus. This month I am going to focus on Australia, and specifically the...
Brett Gillespie
Brett Gillespie
Global Macro
Expert Insights

The Fed hath spoken: no recession on the horizon

The message from former US Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen and two current Fed Presidents was clear at the recent Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference – a...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Expert Insights

Why the future is still bright for Australian investors

Ten years into a bull market and the question inevitably arises as to whether we have seen the end of the current cycle, or if we are simply witnessing a mid-cycle...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?

A two-pronged tweet from President Trump over the weekend threatening to increase tariffs on Chinese imports has shattered the relative calm currently being enjoyed by...
Tony Sutton
Sintra Capital
Macro

Top 5 charts of the week

Here's some of the standout charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Expert Insights

Will Australia implement quantitative easing?

With the cash rate already at just 1.5%, the Reserve Bank has limited ammunition left to deal with a falling housing market and a slowing Australian economy. Even if...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Have we returned to a Goldilocks economy?

Risk markets are certainly eager to price in a Goldilocks period where there is little inflation, growth is slow and steady, and volatility remains tame, but we are...
James Cielinski
Janus Henderson
Macro

Top 5 charts of the week

Here's some of the standout charts on my radar. I aim to pick a good mix of charts covering key global macro trends, and ones which highlight risks and opportunities...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

Is the RBA out of ammo?

Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates. But what’s driving low inflation? Is it really that bad? Why not...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

The economics of a change in government

On 18 May, Australian citizens over the age of 18 will be required to vote to elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. As always, there is a chance of a...
Andrew Macken
Montaka Global Investments
Macro

Why Magellan added a bit of Buffett to the mix

The Federal Reserve's recent about-face on interest rates – holding the federal funds target rate range to 2.25% to 2.50% following some very rocky markets and modest...
Nick Grove
Nick Grove
Livewire Markets
Macro

If Labor Wins, the Budget Surplus Could be Short-Lived

From an economics perspective, the Federal election is shaping up as one to forget. Australia’s economic growth is currently running at less than our population...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

Rate cut talk sinks the Aussie

The Aussie dollar has fallen more than a cent this week, with the sharpest move coming in response to Australia’s Q1 inflation data on Wednesday. The below-consensus...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

The post GFC 'cheap money' bubbles are popping

For most of the last 10 years, the world’s major central banks have been creating significant amounts of cheap money. This has been primarily achieved with various QE...
Chris Watling
Longview Economics
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