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Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Aussie rebounds with global equities

The Aussie dollar had its best week since June, bolstered by equity sentiment linked to US-China trade talks and Hong Kong, while local data was good enough for the...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

Trading places: Australia’s exposure to trade disputes?

The market has closely followed and quickly reacted to news about the trade negotiations between the USA and China. The resolution or escalation of trade disputes...
Sinclair Currie
NovaPort Capital
Macro

Deflation is Back... (but)

It's that D-word again. Deflation is knocking at the door of the global economy, as predicted back in February. But who is going to answer, and who is really at the...
Callum Thomas
Topdown Charts
Macro

This housing boom is very different

Today I explain why this housing boom is very different to its predecessors, and should not constrain the RBA from cutting rates further to hit its inflation and...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Overblown or under-appreciated? 6 risks the market may have wrong

Newspapers sell fear, while equity markets sell optimism. Basing an investment strategy on the latest financial headlines is a great way to destroy capital. But while...
Patrick Poke
A Rich Life
Macro

Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

Australian economic growth has slowed to the weakest since the GFC. Talk of recession remains all the rage. And economists don’t have a great track record in...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Trade war escalation puts outlook on a knife edge

“Tell me why Xi should not continue to wait out ‘The World’s Greatest Negotiator’ who keeps ‘dealing with himself’?” An apt comment in hindsight from...
Scott Haslem
LGT Crestone
Macro

The sky is falling

There is a video on Livewire you should watch in their top trending articles from a chap called Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments. You may not have...
Marcus Padley
Marcus Today
Macro

GDP Hotspots

Here are the Nucleus charts showing Australian GDP and which categories are responsible for the growth/decline. Each bubble represents a category of GDP proportionate...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

If China sneezes, could the rest of the world catch a cold?

China is in the process of attempting to restructure its economy from a capital-intensive, investment-led model to a more Western-style, consumption-driven model,...
Alex Cousley
Alex Cousley
Russell Investments
Expert Insights

Trump has badly misread China’s hand

Donald Trump has been dialing up the tariffs and the rhetoric around the ongoing trade spat with China. Yet Xi Jingping has held a firm line and has been unwilling to...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Value Investing: a religious experience

Farmers of seasonal crops are at the whims of the weather. Despite the work and effort put into ploughing and seeding the field, the harvest is, in the end, dependent...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

As the yield curve inverts, will the U.S. see negative interest rates?

Worries about economic recession, subdued inflation and a flight to quality have led interest rates in the U.S. to plummet in recent weeks. The flight to safety has...
Matt Reynolds
Matt Reynolds
Capital Group
Macro

Central bankers are only human

I’ve come to the realisation that central bankers, rather than being paragons of economic rationalism, are actually human beings. They are subject to the same...
Sean Fenton
Sage Capital
Macro

Why the market may be overreacting to tariffs

It’s hard to keep track of the latest tariff twists and turns as the US and China battle it out at the negotiating table, but the news is not all bad. In fact, the...
Andrew McAuley
Credit Suisse
Macro

Four mega-trends shaping markets

It’s human nature to over-emphasise the here and now, to focus on the news agenda and to extrapolate the recent past. When it comes to our investments, however, it...
Tom Stevenson
Fidelity International
Macro

Four key charts for investors today

We are investing through extraordinary times, with huge forces at play. To extract the market's 'signal' from the 'noise', we asked four of our partners to nominate a...
Alex Cowie
Alex Cowie
Expert Insights

The developed world is on the brink of financial, economic, social and political crisis

(Ed note: First published 28th August 2019 - This remains our most popular video of all time, receiving over 750,000 views) Developed economies are at a crisis point,...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Weekly Review: Trade Fury!

Global MarketsWhile hopes of a stabilisation in trade tensions and more policy stimulus (with talk of a US payroll tax cut and German fiscal action) helped to buoy...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

RBA signalling QE may be coming

I've written a lot about the coming of Aussie QE since we first forecast it in May this year (the notion was dismissed by many at the time), and there is mounting...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Federal Funds Rate projections. They expect what???

Following on from the article we wrote in December 2018, 'Outlook 2019' (found here), we outlined four key themes for 2019. The US interest rate path, implications of...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

President Trump is stuck with a strong dollar

The strength of the US dollar remains a sore point for President Trump. This week he reported its value as the highest in US history. We hear many claims of...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

QE will create wave of zombie companies

Today I argue that since we blindsided participants by first putting the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia launching quantitative easing (QE) back in May,...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Here's how digital currencies could affect asset prices, central bank policies

During August many families travel on holiday to far flung climes. When they arrive, how will they buy their tourist souvenirs? Today it might be dollars and euros, in...
Andrew Milligan
abrdn
Macro

Market turmoil and what it all means for investors

Only last month share markets in the US and Australia were at record highs. But ever since President Trump ramped up the US-China trade war again at the start of...
Shane Oliver
AMP
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