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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Rapid Fire

Watling: Australian recession is still my base case

Back in February, Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, wrote that a recession in Australia was likely, and that rates would be cut to...
The Rules of Investing
Livewire Markets
Macro

An absence of chickens

In case you were wondering whether to sell all those boring defensive highly indebted infrastructure, utility and REIT stocks, look at these charts of the US,...
Marcus Padley
Marcus Today
Macro

Looking backwards to look fowards

As investors welcome in the 119th Financial Year since Federation in January 1901, we take a snapshot at where things are at right now, with an eye on the past...
Rod Skellet
Rod Skellet
Mason Stevens
Macro

House Prices Rise Again...

This week I write that the housing party is just getting started (click on that link to read the column or AFR subs can click here). Recall we forecast the end of the...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The RBA has lost its way

The RBA’s description of its monetary policy mandate states that it “has a duty to maintain price stability, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare...
Jonathan Rochford
Narrow Road Capital
Macro

The RBA and the paradox of perfection

Central banks (including ours) are faced with two choices: “rescue” the world from its economic slowdown; or stand aside and let the inevitable correction take place. ...
WLE
Matthew Haupt
Wilson Asset Management
Macro

Complexity Premia on How to Trade RBA QE

The very special Quantitative Easing (QE) episode from our top-rating Complexity Premia podcast is now live---go and listen at Apple or Podbean below. In this episode...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Australia Housing Outlook: Another Leg Down

Australian housing prices have fallen 8.2% nationally from their peak in 2017, with declines of 10%-15% in the two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, according to...
Aaditya Thakur
PIMCO
Macro

India: A good macro story but fully priced

Recent on-the-ground research in India overwhelmingly highlighted strong support for Modi and the belief that he is the right Prime Minister to take India to the next...
Brigette Leckie
Brigette Leckie
Koda Capital
Macro

How and why do bear markets come?

As investors, we view bear markets as a natural part of the investment cycle. While losing capital is never an enjoyable experience, bear markets should not be feared...
Andrew Mitchell
Ophir Asset Management
Macro

The one problem investors should fear

Late last year the world’s major developed market central banks performed a simple routine: a pause in monetary tightening, subsequently followed this year by a...
abrdn .
abrdn
Expert Insights

Some big risks for Australia to consider

Often the best perspective is gained from an outside view, so to get an objective view of Australia’s markets and economy, we took the chance to ask Daniel Farley,...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

The Fed shakes up global markets

It has been a huge week for central banks around the world and almost all of them are leaning towards lower interest rates.On Tuesday, markets were very surprised by...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

ASX hybrids in huge rally

Today I write that the ASX hybrid market has had a huge rally as a result of the election, with a market-capitalisation weighted index of bank hybrids returning a...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Expert Insights

Always be prepared for a market correction

All investors face two main challenges as they approach the end of the accumulation phase of their lives – they have more capital at risk and their investment horizon...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Does Australia control its destiny?

Last month, there was probably no one more surprised than Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison – or “ScoMo” – to which he is commonly referred. ScoMo had just won...
Andrew Macken
Montaka Global Investments
Macro

A green light for US rate cuts; here are two scenarios now facing investors

A new paradigm awaits global markets with the Fed on the verge of cutting rates for the first time in 11 years. Indeed, there are participants in global markets who...
Angus Coote
Jamieson Coote Bonds
Macro

Chinese equities must be in your portfolio

The technology “war” has only just begun and will get worse. Big tech firms face numerous headwinds. Increasingly the tech giants are viewed as monopolists that are...
Brigette Leckie
Brigette Leckie
Koda Capital
Macro

Europe: Okay for now, Italian exit should not be dismissed

Europe is growing at trend again, after last year’s disappointing weakness. This was, though, largely due to a series of one-off factors which are estimated to have...
Brigette Leckie
Brigette Leckie
Koda Capital
Macro

Fed rates - Where are we now?

There was a brief period when “Faded (Where are we now)” topped the charts recently and we thought it would be an apt title for this week’s blog. Late last year, our...
Chad Slater
Chad Slater
Ellerston Capital
Macro

RBA and banks battle over rates

We were the first to publicly canvass the near-term possibility of Aussie QE (actually, it was one our investors who encouraged us to dig into this), and an...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

A global recession? Really? Surely not?

On the 5th of May, the NY Times published this story; Professors in 179 Colleges and Other Leaders Assail Rise in Rates as Harmful to Country and Sure to Bring...
Brett Gillespie
Brett Gillespie
Global Macro
Macro

Is the US rolling into a recession?

The consensus outlook for the US economy has become increasingly fearful in recent months. In particular, the bears point to renewed trade war concerns, which have...
Chris Watling
Longview Economics
Macro

May market update

The goldilocks run Global Equities has enjoyed since the start of the calendar year finished during May, as renewed fears about global growth weighed on sentiment. For...
Chris Bedingfield
Quay Global Investors
Macro

An investment opportunity years in the making

Global trade data has been slowing rapidly over 2019, but last week’s US employment report was a dire warning, and can expedite the US Federal Reserve (the Fed)...
Charlie Jamieson
Jamieson Coote Bonds
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