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Macro

Understand the fast-changing domestic and global economic forces under the tectonic plates driving our markets.

Macro

Federal Funds Rate projections. They expect what???

Following on from the article we wrote in December 2018, 'Outlook 2019' (found here), we outlined four key themes for 2019. The US interest rate path, implications of...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

President Trump is stuck with a strong dollar

The strength of the US dollar remains a sore point for President Trump. This week he reported its value as the highest in US history. We hear many claims of...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

QE will create wave of zombie companies

Today I argue that since we blindsided participants by first putting the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia launching quantitative easing (QE) back in May,...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Here's how digital currencies could affect asset prices, central bank policies

During August many families travel on holiday to far flung climes. When they arrive, how will they buy their tourist souvenirs? Today it might be dollars and euros, in...
Andrew Milligan
abrdn
Macro

Market turmoil and what it all means for investors

Only last month share markets in the US and Australia were at record highs. But ever since President Trump ramped up the US-China trade war again at the start of...
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Is the US economy headed for recession?

The past few weeks have seen a fundamentally changed investment environment in the U.S.. Since July 31, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time...
Matt Reynolds
Matt Reynolds
Capital Group
Macro

Bonds in a bind

Over recent weeks the trade war ebbed and flowed, Hong Kong erupted in more protests, both the UK and Germany teetered on recession, New Zealand’s central bank stunned...
John Abernethy
Clime Asset Management
Macro

Complexity Premia on Questioning Consensus

The latest episode of our Complexity Premia podcast is live and it is a big one! We discuss: what happened in bond markets in July and August; why the world’s best...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Is the era of central banks drawing to a close?

In January 2014, over five years ago, we wrote in our Half Year Report: “As a nervous January in the markets comes to an end, we still believe the ending of active...
Chad Slater
Chad Slater
Ellerston Capital
Macro

Dalio: The biggest China risk investors face is having no exposure

It wasn't until I read Ray Dalio's 'Principles' book that I knew how long he had been visiting China, and how closely he has been involved with its economic story. (I...
Alex Cowie
Alex Cowie
Macro

Getting the right asset mix when markets send mixed messages

Central banks have made their moves. Politicians have delivered key announcements. What do these mean for financial markets for the rest of the year and into 2020? On...
Andrew Milligan
abrdn
Macro

Will trade war history repeat itself?

Once upon a time there was an Asian country that had a large trade deficit with the United States. The US said this country manipulated its currency, engaged in unfair...
Mary Manning
Alphinity Investment Management
Macro

Trade tensions buffet the Aussie

It’s fair to say that President Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on the $300bn of US goods imports from China that are not currently taxed was not well received in...
Sean Callow
Sean Callow
Westpac Bank
Macro

Trade war transforms into trade impasse

Today I argue that the trade war could be over, or at least transform into a trade impasse, which might in turn unleash the mother-of-all search for yield rallies as...
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Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Building long-term wealth in a low-growth world

There is a simple secret to building long-term wealth - earn consistent, attractive returns on capital, re-invest these returns and allow them to compound and...
Mark Arnold
Mark Arnold
Hyperion
Rapid Fire

An Aussie stock that ticks all the boxes

In the second part of our Q&A, Tony Cousins, Chief Executive & Chief Investment Officer at Pyrford International, discusses some Aussie stocks that tick all of his...
COH
CSL
RIO
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Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Escalating US-China trade war triggers (another) correction in share markets

After a third round of talks made little progress last week, the US/China trade war has escalated badly with tit for tat moves on an almost daily basis by each side....
Shane Oliver
AMP
Macro

Bridge over troubled water: Correction or Recession?

Recent stock market volatility and fixed income market extremes have presented equity and fixed income investors alike, with one of the most challenging and complex...
Rod Skellet
Rod Skellet
Mason Stevens
Rapid Fire

Where to hide in an inflating bubble

After starting out as an equity portfolio manager at Daiwa International Capital Management in London during the late 1980s, Tony Cousins is now Chief Executive &...
Livewire Exclusive
Livewire Markets
Macro

Podcast: Vimal Gor, Pendal Group

Marcelo López spoke with Vimal Gor, head of Fixed Income and Defensive Strategies at Pendal Group, an independent Australian asset manager with about US$100 billion in...
Marcelo Lopez
Marcelo Lopez
L2 Capital Partners
Macro

The inverted US yield curve and recession risk: be wary though don’t panic!

The recent inversion of the US yield curve has seen many interpreting this as the harbinger of a recession in 2020. Though such an inversion is a sign that investors...
Clive Smith
Macro

Weekly Review: Trade tantrum

Global Markets Global equities slumped last week reflecting two negative events: disappointment with regard to Fed guidance and Trump’s new tariffs. A flight...
David Bassanese
Betashares
Macro

The last bastions of yield

The slowdown in global growth does, in part, reflect waning globalisation, but it is important to remember that this slowdown was very much entrenched even before...
James Cielinski
Janus Henderson
Rapid Fire

Understanding and investing in China's ascendancy

Down here in the antipodes, where our own economic fortunes have for many years been closely tied to those of our neighbour to the north, we have seen firsthand how...
Nick Grove
Nick Grove
Livewire Markets
Macro

SAS soldier-pysch who helps hedge funds win

Today I write about the growing proliferation of hedge funds using psychologists to help their traders get an edge, and the former SAS solider and psychologist who has...
Christopher Joye
Coolabah Capital
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